Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Joel Embiid and the 76ers are in for a painfully long season]
Fact or Fiction: Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again
We have heard the tale of LeBron James’ “supercomputer” brain. He knows what you are going to do before you do it, or so the story goes. Except, it seems, when you are Evan Mobley, boasting a fresh arsenal of moves.
Early in the final quarter of Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell corralled a rebound, promptly finding Mobley in transition. James drew the defensive assignment, casually backpedaling, as if he did not anticipate his opponent’s next move. Sure enough, as Mobley has done repeatedly to start the season, he steamrolled to the rim, scoring early in the shot clock.
It was the epitome of everything newly installed head coach Kenny Atkinson has preached to begin his tenure — everything the Cavs have done to become the Eastern Conference’s only remaining unbeaten.
Play with pace and attack the rim, especially if you are Mobley, a 23-year-old Defensive Player of the Year finalist who is only now, in his fourth season, beginning to unfurl the wide ranges of his offensive skill set.
Cleveland’s 101.7 possessions per game reflect the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA, and its 59.6 drives per game are the third-most in the league. The Cavs ranked 24th and 17th in those respective categories last season. Their number of field goals attempted in the first third of a shot clock has similarly skyrocketed.
Mobley has been the biggest benefactor. The faster pace is providing more opportunities for everyone, and Mobley is using a quarter of his team’s possessions when he is on the floor, up from 20% last season. His drives have doubled to nine per game, and he is creating more of his own offense than ever before.
Tristan Thompson simplified it, via The Athletic’s Fred Katz: “More of a ‘f*** you’ attitude this year.”
Roughly 70% of Atkinson’s job interview was focused on, “How are we going to use Evan? How are we going to grow his game?” he told ESPN’s Chris Herring. The results are in, at least through five games, and they are spectacular. Cleveland’s 123.4 points per 100 possessions lead the league — and would represent the best offensive rating in league history if the Cavs can maintain that level of efficiency for a full year.
They cannot. Or will not. The Boston Celtics recorded the highest effective field-goal percentage (57.8%) in history last season. The Cavs own an effective field-goal percentage of 62.4%. The difference between them and the current runner-up (57.5%) is equal to the difference between the second- and 18th-place teams.
Asked if he anticipated the offense jelling so quickly, Atkinson conceded, “Honestly, I’m a bit surprised.”
It will regress, hopefully not to the level of last season, when they ranked in the middle of the pack. They will not continue to score 25.2 points per game off turnovers — the highest figure in NBA.com’s database.
But the core principle — get shots up, and get them up early, even if they are unassisted — is what is important. They likely cannot continue to convert 40% of their 13 pull-up 3s per game as a team. Then again, the Celtics are attempting almost twice as many per game, and while they are not converting them at the same rate, the end result is the same — an elite offense that maximizes its considerable talent.
That has not been easy in Cleveland, where Mobley and Jarrett Allen have crowded spacing for Mitchell and Darius Garland. If nothing else, putting the ball in Mobley’s hands more often — doing “what Giannis [Antetokounmpo] does,” as Atkinson has said — forces Mitchell and Garland off the ball, reorienting the space within the offense. Sticking Allen in a corner helps, too. Even if his shot does not draw the defense, Allen’s athleticism — cutting quickly and pressuring the rim if not accounted for — commands respect.
The final piece to that puzzle is Mobley’s 3-point shot. He is shooting 50% on 1.6 3-point attempts per game. The league has not quite caught up to contesting him. (He shot 28.6% on 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason.) Convert even league average from distance on higher volume and defenses will not be able to ignore Mobley on the outside, generating even more space, with or without the ball.
That he is already one of the NBA’s most efficient high-usage players is a hell of an opening statement.
It will get harder. Defenses will build walls to prevent Mobley from penetrating the paint, as they do opposite Antetokounmpo, and playmaking from that point takes practice. If Mobley can shoot over the wall, what a wrinkle that would be. The more pressure he draws, the more opportunities he will have to find Mitchell, Garland and whatever wing earns the job. They are all prepared to fire at will in Atkinson’s system, or attack close-outs, sending the defense into a rotation that cannot contain Cleveland’s talent.
Will the Cavs continue to outscore opponents by 20 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Allen and Mobley share the floor? Probably not, considering they essentially played opponents even in double-big lineups last season. But can they replicate their +8.6 net rating from two seasons ago, when Cleveland owned the league’s best point differential? That seems doable, given their improved offensive foundation.
Because the defense is always there. The Cavaliers have ranked no lower than seventh on that end in three seasons since they paired Allen and Mobley. They are rated fourth through five games this year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions — a standard that would have led the league last season.
The question is whether they can find some level of consistency to this hot offensive start. Their first three wins came against Toronto, Detroit and Washington — a trio of teams projected for the lottery.
“It’s a new system, so you’re learning new things, but now are we willing to continue to do the different things that have made us successful … when it’s not as easy?” asked Mitchell, according to Cleveland.com.
Wins over the Knicks and Lakers reinforced that this was no fluke — that their connectivity can keep from crumbling in the face of more formidable foes. As Atkinson told reporters and Mitchell reiterated, “When you’re connected and you’re talented, you can do some important things in this league.”
Consistency is key, especially for Mobley, who does not turn 24 until June, when he hopes his team is still playing. There is no overnight rise to superstardom. But the Cavs are winning every 100 possessions by 32.7 points when Mobley mans the center spot, and staying connected is easier than getting connected.
So when Mobley drove by James, maybe it was more than a manifestation of everything Atkinson has preached. Earlier in the game, Cleveland paid tribute to James’ championship contribution to the city, to which Mitchell said: “You want to be the next one.” Maybe Mobley was staking his claim to that throne.
Determination: Fact. Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again.
