Visakhapatnam: A joint study conducted by IIT Guwahati, IIT Mandi, and Bengaluru-based Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) have identified that the erstwhile combined West Godavari, Krishna, and Guntur districts face a high risk of floods. The districts with medium flood risk include Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, East Godavari, Prakasam, Kurnool, Nellore, and Anantapur, while Kadapa and Chittoor have been classified as having a low flood risk. The study integrates climatic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to offer a comprehensive view of district-level risks.
Supported by the department of science and technology (DST) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Embassy of Switzerland, the report offers a detailed analysis of district-level climate risks across India, employing the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) framework. The study highlights the dual challenges of floods and droughts, explaining their disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations.
It identifies Visakhapatnam, Guntur, Prakasam, and Kurnool as districts with high drought risk. Districts with medium drought risk include Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna, Kadapa, Anantapur, and Chittoor. Nellore is the only district classified under low drought risk. The report also points out that, as global warming intensifies, numerous facets of the climate system will experience amplification, leading to increased probabilities of climate hazards and extreme weather events.
This include increased frequency and intensity of hot extremes, occurrences of heavy precipitation, prolonged droughts, and more powerful tropical cyclones. Importantly, the observed changes in extreme events magnify with each additional increment of global warming, with profound implications for flooding and drought occurrences.
The report can be viewed as a reminder of the urgent need for collective action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its escalating impacts. Dr Anita Gupta, head of scientific divisions at DST, said through this report, they have taken a significant step towards identifying vulnerabilities, assessing sensitivity, and addressing challenges faced by local communities at risk. “Translating these findings into on-ground actions is essential, and the insights must reach every stakeholder at both national and state levels,” she said.
Dr Anamika Barua, a researcher from IIT Guwahati, who was part of the core team of the joint study, said this exercise is unique as it develops risk profiles for Indian states and districts using a common methodology based on the IPCC risk framework. “Engaging state stakeholders not only built their capacity but also made the process highly inclusive, going beyond a purely academic endeavour. Such projects enhance science communication, fostering better adaptation planning,” said Anamika.
The report advocates for a multi-scale, sector-specific approach to climate risk assessment and continuous capacity building at the local and regional levels. It highlights the importance of addressing emerging risks such as heat stress and landslides and incorporating future climate scenarios into risk assessments to bolster preparedness and resilience.
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC working group-1 underscores the alarming reality of climate change, affirming that recent climatic shifts are both widespread and unprecedented in millennia. It indicates that global warming will be higher by 1°C to 1.5°C compared to the historical period, even under a very low greenhouse gas emission scenario.
