The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday defied predictions from analysts and an anti-incumbency sentiment to secure an unprecedented third consecutive term in Haryanawinning 48 seats to clinch a comfortable simple majority in the 90-member state assembly.
The performance is a vindication a little over a year after its erstwhile partner Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) abandoned it in March and prompted the party to replace the then chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini.
That move in March was, according to party leaders, among several key steps the party took to both address anti-incumbency and begin a careful rebalancing of how it wooed different castes.
“The party was successful in managing the anger and disillusionment with Khattar. His campaigning was largely restricted, and Saini was projected as the leader. Union home minister Amit Shah, who oversaw the strategy implemented by Dharmendra Pradhan, made a public announcement that he would continue as the CM, which put an end to the perception that he was a proxy for Khattar,” said a BJP leader asking not to be named.
A second senior party leader, also asking not to be named, attributed the BJP’s win to the polarisation of non-Jat voters and said this, along with the astute switch between Khattar and Saini, was helped by the infighting in the Congress camp.
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“The biggest fear among the non-Jat communities was that a Congress rule would establish Jat dominance, which in turn would have a cascading impact on law and order and other administrative issues,” said this person, who was among senior leaders overseeing polls in the state.
To counter this, the BJP fielded a diverse array of candidates, which included 21 OBCs (including Saini, Ahir, Gurjar, and Kumhar communities), 17 Scheduled Castes, 12 Brahmins and Punjabis, five Baniyas, three Rajputs and one Jat Sikh. The party also had 16 Jat candidates.
Results showed it secured not just the non-Jat votes, but also wrested Jat heartland seats, such as Uchana Kalan where party candidate Devender Attri won by 32 votes, Safidon (Jind district), Gohana and Kharkhauda (both in Sonepat district).
The division of the Jat votes itself helped the BJP, said a third leader, who is from the Jat community. “It is true that the BJP pursued the other castes to build a non-Jat leadership since 2014, but the Jats as a community are attached to the vyakti not vichardhara (person not ideology). As a result, the BJP did get support from a section of the (Jat) community as well,” said a second party functionary, who is also a Jat leader.
The party and its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, also opted for a low-key campaign that focused on issues such as corruption during the Congress rule, including with the “Kharchi and Parchi (recommendation and money)” slogan. As it did in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh last year, the Sangh was instrumental in the campaign.
“There was latent anger over several issues–the farmers’ protest, the allegations by the female wrestlers, the simmering anger over the issue of Jat reservation, Agniveer and unemployment were key factors that were identified by the Sangh and the party’s surveys. We opted for a more low-key, restrained campaign to avoid any controversies,” said the second functionary quoted above.
The BJP also improved its tally by winning eight seats reserved for scheduled castes (SCs) this time as compared to five it won in the 2019 assembly elections.
“The sub-classification of scheduled castes into deprived scheduled castes (DSC) comprising 36 castes like Balmikis, Dhanaks, Bangalis, Bawarias, Bazigars, Kabirpanthi, Julaha, Khatik and other scheduled castes (OSC) comprising Chamars, Jatia Chamars, Rahgars, Raigars, Ramdasias or Ravidasias for the purpose of reservation in public employment seems to have worked in favour of the BJP. The deprived scheduled castes (DSC) seem to have voted in favour of the BJP,” said an official who asked not to be named.
Quoting a report of the state commission for scheduled castes, the official said that the DSCs, despite being 52% of the total SC population, occupied a mere 35% share in class 1, 2 and 3 government jobs reserved for SCs.
The Congress, which won 37 seats, retained 13 of the 28 constituencies it had won in 2019 (the party gave tickets to all 28).
For the Congress, its unexpected Jat heartland losses were in districts of Sonepat, Jind, Bhiwani, and Charkhi Dadri. The party was also hit hard by dissidents in at least 17 constituencies. For instance, in Tigaon seat, the Congress candidate finished third, getting about 21,000 votes while the rebel, Lalit Nagar, got about 56,000 votes to finish second. Similarly, in Ambala Cantt constituency, Congress rebel Chitra Sarwara got about 52,000 votes to finish second while the Congress candidate, Parvinder Pal, got about 14,000 to finish third.
Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which won only one seat in 2019, won two seats on their home turf in Sirsa district – Rania and Dabwali. However, INLD’s biggest loss came in the form of Chautala’s younger son, Abhay Singh, losing by 15,000 votes from Ellenabad assembly seat, also in Sirsa district, to Congress’s Bharat Singh Beniwal.
INLD’s splinter outfit, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), did not win a single seat and finished fourth or fifth in several constituencies.
JJP leader and former deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala, who had won from Uchana Kalan in 2019 by 47,452 votes, finished fifth. Three independents got more votes than Dushyant, who could get only 7,950 votes.
