Cadiz vs Villarreal Odds
Kicking off Friday’s slate in La Liga, Villarreal make the trip to the south of Spain to take on Cádiz at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
The Yellow Submarines only have one win through their first three matches coming into the game sitting in 13th.
Meanwhile, the hosts have four points out of seven to start the campaign, with a victory pushing them level on points with Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.
Match day 3 was full of goals across the Spanish top flight. However, I have a feeling we should see those low-scoring affairs come back this week, starting here in this fixture.
Here is my Cadiz vs Villarreal pick and prediction.
Even through just three games, you are already seeing the trend that developed in the last campaign, which was how much better Cádiz played at home compared to on the road.
In the home matches this season against Alavés and Almería, manager Sergio’s side has posted a +1.7 xGDiff, according to fbref.comand picked up four points.
Meanwhile, the lone away trip to Barcelona ended with them losing the xG battle by 2.3 xG.
You could argue that this is down to the level of opposition being much different on these occasions, but I do agree with the data that Cádiz are a much tougher outfit at the Mirandilla.
Another side that had very big discrepancies in their performances at home or on the road were Villarreal, who posted a +16.0 xGDiff at home and a -4.7 away from it.
The big reason for the shift is how the offensive output dropped off during the Yellow Submarines’ travels.
At the El Madrigal, Villarreal averaged 2.06 xG and 3.61 big scoring chances per fixture, which is much better than 1.18 xG and 1.9 big chances on the road.
However, the club’s lone win this season did come at Mallorca, so maybe the Yellow Submarines plan to buck that trend this campaign.
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Cadiz vs Villarreal
Pick & Prediction
Because of all of the goals we saw across the league last weekend, I believe we are getting a higher total than we would typically see in this fixture.
So, I plan to take advantage with my best bet for the match backing the game to fall under the total of 2.5 goals at -110 odds, which I would play to -125.
This was a profitable bet in Cádiz home games in 2022-23, cashing at a 68% clip. Meanwhile, seven out of 10 home fixtures against sides in the top 10 also fell under this same total.
If you had bet this in the pair of matches at the Mirandilla this season, you would have had a winning ticket in both as the two games have averaged just 1.45 xG and less than a single big scoring chance in them.
As for the visitors, I mentioned above how their offense struggled on the road, which led to there being less than three goals in 60% of games against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league table.
The goal-fests were fun for a week in Spain, but it is time for La Liga to return to its normal way of playing with low-event matches.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)
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