Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao Odds
Kicking off this weekend’s slate in La Liga, Athletic Club battle Alavés in a heated Basque derby on Friday night at the Mendizorrotza.
Bilbao have gotten off to an excellent start to the campaign, picking up 10 points from five matches to sit at fourth in the league table.
Meanwhile, the newly-promoted club is perfect at home after wins over Sevilla and Valencia.
This rivalry match should be a great opener for the soccer weekend in Spain. So, let’s dive in to find the best betting value in the game.
For any team looking to survive in La Liga in your first season back in the division, you have to be strong at home, which is what Alavés have done so far.
Manager Luis García’s team owns a +1.7 xGDiff at home compared to a -3.8 on the road. Meanwhile, the club has also generated seven of its eight big chances at the Mendizorrotza.
This is also the same side that has scored all five of its goals at home, failing to find the back of the net on the road.
The 2022-23 campaign was the first time Alavés were in the second tier in Spain since the 2016-17 season, and they will be fighting for survival to avoid the drop again.
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After the season-opening loss to Real Madrid, Athletic have turned it around with an unbeaten run of four games coming into this fixture.
Manager Ernesto Valverde’s side has also put up some solid numbers at the start of the campaign, led by a stout defense.
Through five matches, Bilbao lead the Spanish top flight in the fewest xG allowed per 90 minutes (0.67) and big chances given up per match (0.6).
If Iñaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta can keep knocking in the goals, the club will be pushing to qualify for the Champions League next season.
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Bilbao
Betting Pick & Prediction
Derbies can be very tricky to bet in all leagues and sports. However, I do feel there’s value in taking the road favorite in this match.
So, my best bet is to back Athletic Club on the moneyline at +115 odds via bet365, which I would play to -105.
If you look back to last season, Bilbao won 6-of-10 road games against sides who finished in the bottom half of the league table. Valverde’s side finished with a +8.3 xGDiff in those fixtures and scored multiple goals in seven matches.
Yes, I do like how Alavés have played so far at home. However, this is going to be a big step up in competition for them here.
In fact, García’s team has not played a club that ended the last campaign in the top 10 of La Liga.
The Sevilla victory was a good win, but it came after they played Manchester City in the UEFA Super Cup in the midweek prior to the match.
With this being a derby, you could look at a potential angle for betting on cards, but I’ll keep it simple in taking the better team with plus-money odds.
Pick: Athletic Bilbao ML (+115 via bet365)
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