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Rugby World Cup quarter-final permutations: What Scotland & Ireland need to qualify

Rugby World Cup quarter-final permutations: What Scotland & Ireland need to qualify

England joined Wales in the quarter-finals when Japan ended Samoa’s hopes of progressing on Thursday
Venue: France Dates: 8 September to 28 October
Coverage: Full commentary of every game across BBC Radio 5 Live and Radio 5 Live Sports Extra, plus text updates on the BBC Sport website and app.

The pool stage of the 2023 Rugby World Cup is approaching its conclusion, and for the majority of nations there is still plenty to play for.

After every team has played four group games, the top two finishers in each pool of five go through to the quarter-finals on 14 and 15 October.

The sides finishing third in their pools qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Australia, as do the quarter-finalists.

Who plays who in the quarter-finals?

14 October: Quarter-final 1: Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D (Stade de Marseille), 16:00 – currently Wales v Japan

14 October: Quarter-final 2: Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A (Stade de France), 20:00 – currently Ireland v New Zealand

15 October: Quarter-final 3: Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C (Stade de Marseille), 16:00 – currently England v Fiji

15 October: Quarter-final 4: Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B (Stade de France), 20:00 – currently France v South Africa

World Cup semi-finals

The winners of the games on 14 October play each other in the first semi-final on 20 October and the winners of the matches on 15 October face each other in the last four on 21 October.

World Cup final

The Rugby World Cup winners will be crowned in Paris on 28 October.

Knockout stage permutations

Before all that, the qualifiers from the pool are yet to be fully determined, with loads of permutations and possibilities coming into play.

In the pool stage, teams earn four points for a win and two for a draw. A bonus point is awarded for scoring four tries or for a defeat by seven points or fewer.

If two teams are tied on the same number of points, the winner of the match between those teams will go through regardless of points difference.

All times in the remaining fixtures listed below are BST – here is what each team needs from their final preliminary matches…

Pool A

Pool A standings: France lead with 13 points from New Zealand with 10, Italy are third also with 10, Uruguay are fourth with five and Namibia fifth with no points

Remaining fixtures:

5 October: New Zealand v Uruguay (20:00)

6 October: France v Italy (20:00)

France will finish top of Pool A if they beat or draw with Italy, while a win for New Zealand against Uruguay would mean the All Blacks also go through to the last eight.

If France lose, Italy are likely to go through at their expense, but the hosts could progress if they pick up two bonus points and Italy do not get any.

If France and Italy both finish on 14 points – and assuming New Zealand win – Italy would go through by virtue of having won their head-to-head match.

Pool B

Pool B standings: Ireland lead with 14 points, South Africa have 10, Scotland 5, while Tonga and Romania have no points

30 September: Scotland v Romania (20:00)

1 October: South Africa v Tonga (20:00)

7 October: Ireland v Scotland (20:00)

8 October: Tonga v Romania (16:45)

Ireland will qualify and guarantee top spot if they avoid defeat by Scotland, although Andy Farrell’s men will be sure of a quarter-final place before their final game should South Africa fail to beat Tonga or if Scotland do not beat Romania.

Anything less than a bonus-point win for South Africa over Tonga would allow Scotland to overtake the Springboks with two bonus-point wins, and in that scenario South Africa would go out because even if they and Ireland finish level on 14 points, Ireland would hold the tie-breaker advantage courtesy of their victory on 23 September.

However, Scotland could take a maximum 10 points from their last two games and still not qualify.

There are scenarios in which Ireland, Scotland and South Africa all end up level on 14 or 15 points, with one win and one loss against each other. In such an instance, points difference will come into play.

Tonga and Romania could still qualify by winning their final two games with bonus points, but are relying on Scotland and South Africa also finishing the pool on 10 points and then having a best points difference of the second-placed trio.

Pool C

Pool C standings: Wales are top with 14 points, Fiji are second, Australia third, Georgia fourth and Portugal fifth

30 September: Fiji v Georgia (16:45)

1 October: Australia v Portugal (16:45)

7 October: Wales v Georgia (14:00)

8 October: Fiji v Portugal (20:00)

Wales became the first nation to guarantee their spot in the quarter-finals with their 40-6 win over Australia on Sunday.

Warren Gatland’s men will make certain of top spot if they win, draw or take two bonus points in a loss against Georgia in their final match.

Fiji are best-placed to join Wales in the last eight, helped by their superior head-to-head record over Australia. Wins in their final two games against Georgia and Portugal will be enough for them to qualify.

Should Fiji slip up, Eddie Jones’ Australia could sneak into second place with a positive result against Portugal. However, the Wallabies are on the brink of a first ever pool-stage elimination.

Georgia and Portugal have slim chances of a top-two place but will need to cause at least one upset in their remaining fixtures.

Pool D

Pool D standings: England are top with 14 points, Japan are second, Samoa third, Argentina fourth and Chile fifth

30 September: Argentina v Chile (14:00)

7 October: England v Samoa (16:45)

8 October: Japan v Argentina (12:00)

England’s place in the knockouts was sealed with a match to spare when Samoa, who they face in their final group game, failed to beat Japan on Thursday – meaning Steve Borthwick’s side advance as Pool D winners.

Argentina and Japan could both match England’s current points tally of 14, but cannot overtake the 2003 champions having already lost to them earlier in the tournament.

The Pumas, who play already eliminated Chile on Saturday, are likely to be in a winner-takes-all shootout with Japan in their final pool match, with the victor taking second spot.

Samoa could still advance if winless Chile beat Argentina, the Pumas then defeat Japan in their final fixture and they defeat England.

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