RB Salzburg vs Real Sociedad Odds
Real Sociedad head to Austria to kick off match week two in the Champions League against RB Salzburg.
The champions of Austria won their opening match against Benfica, although they were benefited by a red card in the 13th minute. Either way, they ended up scoring twice and creating 3.3 xG en their route to three points. They were the longest shot to get out of this group and three more points would see them head to the top of Group D before two matches with Inter.
Real Sociedad got a draw with last year’s runner up Inter in their opening match after conceding late. Sociedad have been in great form in La Liga, winning four of their last five matches to move into fifth place in the table. With back to back matches with Benfica coming up, this match is crucial for their chances at qualifying for the round of 16.
Let’s dive into RB Salzburg vs Real Sociedad.
It was a great win from Salzburg against Benfica, but the market has gone a little far in favor of them, especially considering they were playing up a man for a majority of the match.
The thing that we always know with Red Bull clubs is they have an identity of how they want to play. It’s all high intense pressing and putting an emphasis on being really good in transition. However, as is the case with a lot of teams from smaller countries in the Champions League, they have to play a different style than how they play in their own domestic league.
Salzburg have shown that they can hang in the Champions League with the big boys and be effective not having the ball for a majority of the match. The past three Champions League seasons they have finished with a positive expected goal differential despite year after year losing their top talent to bigger clubs.
This year was no different, as they lost their best two attacking players Noah Okafor and Benjamin Sesko. However, this Salzburg team just isn’t at the level of some of the past teams that have gotten results in the Champions League. They are sitting at a +0.94 xGD per 90 minutes this season in the Austrian Bundesliga when two years ago they were at +1.45 per 90 minutes.
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Real Sociedad have been one of the more underrated teams in La Liga and this year is no different. They are coming off a 3-0 beat down of Athletic Bilbao, a team that plays a similar style to that of Salzburg in a 4-4-2, looking to press high and create high turnovers. Real Sociedad played right through that pressure on their way to scoring three goals.
Sociedad will typically play out of a 4-4-2 and their primary method of attack is through deep circulations. They slowly progress the ball up the pitch and then move it side to side in the opponent’s final third, looking for an opening.
They are very good at playing through teams that will press them high like Salzburg, ranking third in Offensive PPDA and sixth in build up completion percentage. They also are fourth in goalkeeper progression, which is the average distance teams progress the ball via goal kicks, so they are well equipped to face Salzburg’s high press.
RB Salzburg vs Real Sociedad
Pick & Prediction
This match really sets up well for Sociedad tactically considering they just ripped apart a team that plays the exact same formation and style as Salzburg.
Additionally, if we look at this from a mathematical perspective, Salzburg are a +0.91 xGD per 90 minutes in Austria dating back to last season, which is ranked 11th by UEFA coefficients. Spain is pretty clearly the second-best league in the world and Real Sociedad have put up a +0.45 xGD per 90 minutes since the start of last season.
I have a 0.82 projected goal gap between the strength of these two leagues, so even before taking into account that Sociedad are the more talented team, this line really should be closer Sociedad being a favorite rather than a pick’em.
I have Sociedad projected as a +115 favorite, so I like the value on them at +145.
Pick: Real Sociedad ML (+145 via FanDuel)
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