Kyle Larson enters Sunday’s race at Homestead as the only driver with a guaranteed shot at the 2023 Cup Series title. And that freedom to not worry about a poor finish helps make him and his team the big favorites to win the race.
Larson is +275 to win his second straight race at the track. Those are extremely low odds for a driver to win a race.
Larson also predictably has the lowest odds of anyone to win the Cup Series title at the moment. Since he’s the only driver locked into the final four, Larson is +160 to win the title while William Byron is the No. 2 favorite at +350. If you’re looking to bet Larson to win the title, we suggest waiting until the final four is set after Martinsville to get better odds.
A win on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC) would be Larson’s second straight at the track. He dominated the 2022 race despite getting eliminated from the playoffs in the second round. Larson led 199 of 267 laps a season ago and won the first two stages.
He was similarly successful at Las Vegas less than a week ago to clinch that championship spot. Larson led 133 of 267 laps and also won the race’s first two stages. The victory was his fourth of the season and second of the playoffs.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of Sunday’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.
The favorites
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Kyle Larson (+270)
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Tyler Reddick (+600)
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Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
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Denny Hamlin (+700)
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William Byron (+750)
Reddick has two top fives in three starts at Homestead and has been successful in the Xfinity Series. Truex has the second-best average finish of anyone at the track (9.7) but his only victory at Homestead came in 2017 when he won his only Cup Series title. His ninth-place finish at Vegas was his best result of the playoffs. Hamlin has three Homestead wins and 12 top-10 finishes. He also has the most pole positions (3) of any active driver. Byron won at Homestead in 2021 but that’s his only top five in five starts.
Good mid-tier value
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Kyle Busch (+1600)
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Chris Buescher (+2000)
Busch has two Homestead wins. Those came in 2015 and 2019 when he won his Cup Series titles. He’s also finished in the top 10 in 11 of 18 starts. Buescher has never finished in the top five or top 10 at Homestead, but he should have a solid run.
Don’t bet this driver
We’ve been thinking it’s only a matter of time for Elliott to get his first win of the season but time is now quickly running out. He wasn’t a threat at Las Vegas before a restart penalty and we’re not sure he’ll suddenly match Larson and Byron at Homestead.
Looking for a long shot?
The defending Cup Series champion at these odds? Why not. But Logano also has long odds because of the relative lack of speed Team Penske has shown at intermediate tracks in 2023.
