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Andre Snellings, ESPN
There are two games on the NBA schedule on Thursday, both featuring teams with major playoff aspirations. In both games, however, one team is missing key presences in the backcourt that could tilt the action. How do the likely absences of James Harden (personal), Devin Booker (doubtful, foot) and Bradley Beal (doubtful, back) affect the betting angles for tonight? Let’s dig into it.
Dre’s favorite bets for Thursday night
Bucks -6 over 76ers (-110) The angle of these two teams’ trajectories coming off the offseason couldn’t be more opposite. The Bucks are riding high after trading for Damian Lillard (when most thought he would end up in South Beach) and signing Giannis Antetokounmpo to a super max extension (when he had previously stated he didn’t plan to address his future until next summer). The 76ers’ offseason has not been as sunny, with the drama surrounding James Harden sucking all the air out of the room and resulting in him being asked not to travel with the team on Thursday.
The 76ers, even without Harden, have the talent to compete against any team on any given day. But the Bucks project as (by-far) the most potent offense in the NBA according to the Basketball Power Index (BPI) and they come into this game on such a more positive note that I expect to see them cover in their season opener at home.
Tyrese Maxey over 26.5 total points + assists. Maxey will have to carry a larger role on offense with Harden out. If Patrick Beverley and P.J. Tucker both start, the 76ers would have two defensive role players in the first unit, concentrating the offensive production to Joel EmbiidMaxey and Tobias Harris. Maxey averaged more than 20 PPG last season, and projects to a step up as a scorer this season. In addition, Beverley isn’t a true floor general on offense, so Maxey will have to help run the point as well. In his last preseason game, Maxey dished 11 assists while starting with Beverley. Finally, the Bucks traded their best perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday and their starting guards of Lillard and Malik Beasley are not known for their defense, which should also favor Maxey’s potential production on offense.
Lakers -5.5 over Suns (-110). With both Booker and Beal expected to sit, the Lakers should have too much strength at both ends for the Suns. If both sit, the Suns’ starting lineup projects to Jordan Goodwin, Grayson Allen, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic. The Lakers already have the advantage in the paint, with Anthony Davis and LeBron James too physically strong and explosive for a Nurkic-led frontline to slow at the rim. The BPI game predictor also seems to agree with the magnitude of the spread, giving the Lakers a higher chance to win this game (64.7%) than it does the Bucks to defeat the 76ers (63.9%).
Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Line: Bucks (-6)
Money Line: 76ers (+180), Bucks (-220)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projection: Bucks (63.9%)
Injury Report:
76ers: James Harden(OFS – Not Injury Related)
Bucks: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
10 pm ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 1-0 (1-0-0)
Lakers: 0-1 (0-1-0)
Line: Lakers (-5.5)
Money Line: Suns (+185), Lakers (-225)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projection: Lakers (64.7%)
Injury Report:
Suns: Bradley Beal(GTD – Back); Devin Booker(GTD – Foot); Damion Lee(OUT – Knee)
Lakers: Cam Reddish(GTD – Foot); Jarred Vanderbilt(OUT – Heel); Jalen Hood-Schifino(OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
