With India already secured top spot in the standings, the only semis spot left now is for the fourth place finishers in the points table, who will be the opponent of the hosts in the last-four stage.
Three teams are still vying for the last remaining spot in the knock-out stage. New ZealandPakistan and Afghanistan have to win their final league matches and hope to win the battle of net run rates (NRR) to make the cut. Any team, among the three, who lost their last league match will fall behind in the race.
Here are a few scenarios to determine the opponent of the undefeated India in the all-important semi-final:
Scenario 1
If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka on Thursday, they will be the frontrunner to face India in the semifinal. The Kiwis (+0.398) have the best NRR among the three, followed by Pakistan (+.036) and Afghanistan (-0.338).
Afghanistan play South Africa, who are already assured of a top three finish, on Friday and they will need one of their biggest wins ever to compensate for their negative NRR. So, in all probability their chances to reach the semis will end with the New Zealand victory.
Pakistan play their last league match against England on Saturday, after New Zealand and Afghanistan conclude their round-robin campaigns. And they will know the exact margin of victory required to go past the Kiwis in the race. But a big win for the Kiwis against the Lankans will shut the door for them too as they are behind on NRR.
Scenario 2
If New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan win against South Africa. Pakistan can go past the Kiwis with a win against England. Then Pakistan and Afghanistan will have 10 points each and New Zealand 8.
With Pakistan’s NRR being much better than Afghanistan, the latter will not be able to stop a mouth-watering India vs Pakistan semi-final clash.
Scenario 3
If all three lost their final matches. They all will finish on 8 points. Again, NRR will come into play and the advantage will be with New Zealand, who are already ahead in the points table on superior NRR over Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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Scenario 4
If New Zealand’s last match against Sri Lanka is washed out due to rain, then a win for Pakistan against England will take them ahead of the Kiwis in the standings with 10 points. Win for Afghanistan will also take them to 10 points and NRR will come into play again to decide the semi-finalists. Pakistan will have an advantage there.
If rain washed out all their last games, then the Kiwis will go through on a superior net run rate.
So, the possibility of an India vs Pakistan semi-final clash mostly depends on New Zealand game against Sri Lanka on Thursday.
