NEW DELHI: Pakistan’s general election on February 8 is widely expected to lead to the re-emergence of former premier Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N party as dominant players, but experts believe that the powerful military establishment will continue to call the shots and shape relations with India from behind the scenes.
About 128 million people are eligible to vote in Pakistan’s 12th general elections, which will be held amid increasing attacks and the jailing of Imran Khan, the winner of the last polls in 2018, who is barred from contesting. Twenty-four people died in two bombings that targeted political offices in Balochistan province on Wednesday and a crackdown on Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has fuelled concerns the polls won’t be free and fair.
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Despite concerns about a low turnout, most reports suggest that Sharif, who was ousted as premier in 2017 after a falling out with the Pakistan Army, and the PML-N are set to emerge as the single largest political force.
Sharat Sabharwal, who was the Indian envoy in Islamabad during 2009-13, said he perceives Thursday’s election as a mirror image of the polls of 2018, though the Pakistan army’s “favourite and bête noire have changed places”. He was referring to Sharif and Khan, whose detractors have contended he rose to power in 2018 because of the military’s support.
“The outcome isn’t expected to provide a respite from Pakistan’s political crisis and sharp polarisation, the tackling of which is the starting point for dealing with other issues such as the economic downturn and the security situation,” Sabharwal said.
Ajay Bisaria, who was India’s last high commissioner to Pakistan during 2017-20, said the election process “completely lacks credibility when it comes to being fair”. He added, “The army doesn’t care much about the credibility of the process, which is low globally, because things have settled down in the past after similar accusations. There could also be engineering during and after the elections, especially with independent candidates and small parties which are controlled by the army.”
The PML-N has suffered an erosion of its base across Pakistan following the emergence of the PTI, including in its erstwhile stronghold in the most populous province of Punjab. It also remains to be seen how well Sharif and his party will fare, especially since Khan remains popular and commands widespread support at the grassroots level.
TCA Raghavan, who was the envoy to Islamabad during 2013-2015, referred to these factors and said: “The outcome of the election, in a general sense, is known but it is difficult to predict the details. These details will be key to understanding what sort of government will be formed.”
He added that the Pakistan army has no choice as of now but to go with Nawaz Sharif. “How much they will empower him or how much fine-tuning they will do, one doesn’t know.”
Baqir Sajjad, a senior journalist with Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper, said the complex dynamics between the civilian leadership and military power, exemplified by Sharif’s political journey in recent years, reflect the “fluidity of the country’s politics”.
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He said, “Sharif’s return, following Khan’s fall from favour with the military, in particular, showcases the transient nature of the civil-military relationship. This scenario demands Sharif’s careful navigation of the military’s expectations against a backdrop of significant regional and international considerations.”
The outcome of the election will also determine the future course of India-Pakistan relations, which never recovered from the setback caused by the 2008 Mumbai attacks carried out by terrorists from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The relationship cratered further after a string of terror attacks by the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), including the 2019 Pulwama suicide attack that brought the two sides to the brink of war.
Sabharwal said the current Pakistan Army chief, Gen Asim Munir, plays a more overt role than his predecessor, Gen Qamar Bajwa, and “comes across in the image of generals of the past, who believed it was their destiny to lead the country”. While Sharif may “follow his instincts to seek a degree of thaw with India, with trade as a starting point”, how much he will be able to deliver will depend on the will of the army, Sabharwal said.
Raghavan said the future of India-Pakistan ties will depend largely on what New Delhi wants.
“Regardless of the setup in Pakistan, the major initiative has usually come from India. Sharif being back is good for India-Pakistan ties but whether the army will work with him remains to be seen,” he said.
While expressing cautious optimism for bilateral ties, Bisaria said the overall conditions are conducive to improving relations, especially if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sharif emerge with fresh mandates and Sharif is allowed by the Pakistan Army to go ahead on ties with India.
“There has been no major terror attack since Pulwama in 2019, cross-border terrorism is at a low, the ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) is holding and the two sides can move towards long-hanging fruit such as trade,” Bisaria said.
