Premier League relegation battle: Who will stay up?

Sheffield United and Burnley are 11 points from Premier League safety and look doomed heading into the final stages of the season.

Bournemouth took a huge leap towards safety with a 2-0 win at Turf Moor on Sunday, lifting them 11 points above the relegation zone with a game in hand on most of their rivals.

Only eight points separate 18th-placed Luton and the four teams immediately above them – Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Everton and Crystal Palace.

But it’s complicated…

Both Everton and Forest face anxious waits after being charged in January for alleged breaches in their accounts for 2022-23.

Forest’s case will be heard on Thursday 7 and Friday 8 March.

If they are found to have breached rules, they face a points deduction. A verdict is not expected until April and would be subject to appeal.

Any appeal could take that process to 24 May, the week after the season concludes on 19 May.

In November, Everton were immediately docked 10 points for breaking profit and sustainability rules (PSR) in the three-year period to 2021-22.

However, that penalty was reduced to six points after an appeal.

Current table

The run-in

Bournemouth: 9 March v Sheff Utd (home); 13 March v Luton (home); 30 March v Everton (home); 2 April v Crystal Palace (home); 6 April v Luton (away); 14 April v Man Utd (home); 20 April v Aston Villa (away); 27 April v Brighton (home); 4 May v Arsenal (away); 11 May v Brentford (home); 19 May v Chelsea (away). Postponed to date TBC: Wolves (away)

Crystal Palace: 9 March v Luton (home); 30 March v Nott’m Forest (away); 2 April v Bournemouth (away); 6 April v Man City (home); 14 April v Liverpool (away); 20 April v West Ham (home); 27 April v Fulham (away); 4 May v Man Utd (home); 11 May v Wolves (away); 19 May v Aston Villa (home). Postponed to date TBC Newcastle (home).

Brentford: 9 March v Arsenal (away); 16 March v Burnley (away); 30 March v Man Utd (home); 3 April v Brighton (home); 6 April v Aston Villa (away); 13 April v Sheff Utd (home); 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Everton: 9 March v Man Utd (away); 30 March v Bournemouth (away); 2 April v Newcastle (away); 6 April v Burnley (home); 15 April v Chelsea (away); 20 April v Nott’m Forest (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheff Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away). Postponed to date TBC: Liverpool (home)

Nottingham Forest: 10 March v Brighton (away); 16 March v Luton (away); 30 March v Crystal Palace (home); 2 April v Fulham (home); 8 April v Tottenham (away); 13 April v Wolves (home); 20 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Man City (home); 4 May v Sheff Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 9 March v Crystal Palace (away); 13 March v Bournemouth (away); 16 March v Nott’m Forest (home); 30 March v Tottenham (away); 3 April v Arsenal (away); 6 April v Bournemouth (home); 13 April v Man City (away); 20 April v Brentford (home); 27 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

Burnley: 10 March v West Ham (away); 16 March v Brentford (home); 30 March v Chelsea (away); 2 April v Wolves (home); 6 April v Everton (away); 13 April v Brighton (home); 20 April v Sheff Utd (away); 27 April v Man Utd (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nott’m Forest (home).

Sheffield United: 4 March v Arsenal (home); 9 March v Bournemouth (away); 30 March v Fulham (home); 4 April v Liverpool (away); 7 April v Chelsea (home); 13 April v Brentford (away); 20 April v Burnley (home); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nott’m Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home). Postponed to date TBC: Man Utd (away)

What do the prediction models suggest?

Data specialists Nielsen’s Gracenote has calculated a percentage chance of relegation for each team, based on their remaining fixtures.

Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and their own Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances. These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.