Follow live coverage of the first day of the French Open 2024 today and game-by-game coverage of Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray
Once upon a time, there was a tennis tournament called the French Open. Plenty of great men’s players triumphed on the red clay, but so did a lot of nice players who never ended up on anyone’s all-time list. Andres Gomez. Carlos Moya. Thomas Muster. Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Gaston Gaudio.
This was the “Open” that really was pretty open, at least for players who had a talent for slogging on soft red clay for four hours.
And then, the higher minds of tennis made the red clay harder and faster, and along came a young Spaniard who wore funny shorts named Rafael Nadaland the French Open, at least on the men’s side, was basically never open again.
But as the French Open held its 2024 draw Thursday afternoon, the event had a renewed everything-and-nothing quality, given that the top of men’s tennis has basically become an episode of Grey’s Anatomy during the past month.
Nadal is the episode’s main storyline, patient zero of the chaos, and a 112-3 record at the tournament. Now he has to play the world No 4, Alexander Zverev, in the first round.
Nadal is a threat to anybody — including himself (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Nadal was unseeded, so he could have ended up anywhere from the second slot, right under Novak Djokovic for the 60th time in their careers, undoubtedly with the strangest of circumstances, or next to “TBD” from the qualifying tournament, or somewhere in between. When it was over, the greatest clay-court player of all time learned that he would have to play a rematch of the 2022 French Open semi-final, where Zverev tore ligaments in his ankle after pushing Nadal to his limits.
It couldn’t really be worse for the 14-time champion, and a gasp rippled through the audience when the pairing was made. He is the greatest floater in the modern history of tennis. Each shot might be his last, but after all he’s done at this tournament, there is the notion of the smallest chance that he will walk onto the grounds and feel all his old magic once more, as though he has just chugged an elixir. Having to face a player as competent on clay as Zverev took the air out of proceedings.
Zverev will be playing over the coming days and weeks while a domestic abuse hearing begins in the German city of Berlinover charges that he abused a former girlfriend during an argument in 2020.
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“It all depends on the draw” is one of the age-old cliches of tennis. There is plenty of truth to it at the start of a tournament, before players have had a chance to play themselves into form. It’s still largely a waste of time to look at a first-round draw and start prognostications about semi-final matchups that often don’t end up happening.
That is more true this year than it has been in a while, because of the health calamities at the top of the game. Normally, having to face a top-five favorite in the opening round is pretty much a death sentence. This year, it might not be such a bad thing.
The first favorite, Carlos Alcarazhas a balky right forearm that has made a mess of his clay-court campaign. No Monte Carlo, Barcelona or Rome, and defeat to Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals in Madrid. He will face US lucky loser, JJ Wolf.
Next is Djokovic, the defending champion who really hasn’t played top-tier tennis in six months, and who took a whack on the head from a falling water bottle while signing autographs in Rome. He lost his next match and is competing in a lower-level tournament in Geneva this week, to try to find some form and confidence at the last minute.
Djokovic is struggling for form in 2024 (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
In the first round, Djokovic will face Pierre Hugues-Herbert, who can walk onto the court with the confidence of knowing he is facing someone who has lost to both Luca Nardi of Italy and Alejandro Tabilo of Chile since March, and now to Tomas Machac in Geneva.
Then there’s Jannik Sinnerwho suffered a hip injury during a weight training session in Madrid. He pulled out of his quarter-final there and then skipped the Italian Open. He will play in Roland Garros, according to his agent, but his health has been touch-and-go for days. For his first-round opponent, Chris Eubanks, there’s never been a better time to face a player likely to take over the No 1 slot in the rankings in the coming weeks.
Perhaps you fancy Stefanos Tsitispas or Casper Ruud. They’re French Open finalists the past three years, and two of the best clay-court players in the world. Tsitsipas found his form on the Monte Carlo clay in early April, but wobbled in Madrid and Rome. He faces Marton Fucsovics, while Ruud, who complained of a “lock” in his back in Rome, has been released from facing promising Czech, Jakub Mensik, who withdrew with injury. Ruud will now play Felipe Meligeni Alves.
More outside bets might be the in-form Chileans: Nicolas Jarry and Alejandro Tabilo, who made the final and semi-finals in Rome respectively. Jarry faces Corentin Moutet, while Tabilo takes on Zizou Bergs.
French Open 2024: Men’s first-round picks
- 🇨🇭 Stan Wawrinka vs 🇬🇧 Andy Murray
- 🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev (4) vs 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal
- 🇫🇷 Gael Monfils vs 🇧🇷 Thiago Seyboth Wild
- 🇦🇺 Alexei Popyrin vs 🇦🇺 Thanasi Kokkinakis
- 🇵🇹 Nuno Borges vs 🇨🇿 Tomas Machac
- 🇫🇷 Hugo Gaston vs 🇺🇸 (15) Ben Shelton
- 🇩🇰 Holger Rune (13) vs 🇬🇧Dan Evans
- 🇫🇷 Arthur Fils (29) vs 🇮🇹 Matteo Arnaldi
This is how a French Open becomes truly open.
Every Swiatek is how it becomes closed. Swiatek will turn 23 next week. She has won three of the past four French Open titles, and has become nearly unbeatable on clay. She lost a semi-final in Stuttgart last month to Elena Rybakina, then won in Madrid and Rome, beating world No 2 Aryna Sabalenka twice.
Swiatek is developing a clay-court reputation similar to that of Nadal (Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images)
Given all that, the biggest question wasn’t her opponent in the first round (it’s qualifier Leolia Jeanjean, and she could face Naomi Osaka in the second round) but whether the two players who have proven to be the greatest challenges for her, Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko, would end up on her side of the draw. Of course, there are other players who can have a career day and beat Swiatek. Linda Noskova, 29th in the world, did it in Australia, but that was on a hard court.
Like Noskova, Rybakina and Ostapenko are two of the biggest hitters in the game. And Swiatek generally has most of her problems against big hitters, since they take time away from her or have the power to hit the ball through the court.
Ostapenko won the French Open in 2017 (Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images)
Ostapenko has beaten Swiatek all four times they have played, and won this tournament in 2017. Rybakina has won four out of six meetings.
They will have to get to her first though. Ostapenko and Swiatek could meet in the semi-finals, while Rybakina would have to wait until the final.
As for the other players with an outside chance of slaying Swiatek, Sabalenka will face Erika Andreeva in the first round, Coco Gauff will play Julia Avdeeva, and Danielle Collins will face compatriot Caroline Dolehide. Collins and Gauff could meet Swiatek in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively.
Sabalenka, the winner of the last Grand Slam in Australia and two of the last five, is the second seed, which means she can’t face Swiatek on her favorite court until the finals. If Swiatek is still standing then, chances are she is playing pretty well — she is 4-0 in Grand Slam finals and 19-4 in finals overall.
The women’s draw also has some floaters that no one will really want to face, even if they aren’t as big of a threat as they might have been in the recent past. Osaka hasn’t had the best time on clay, but she’s said she’s leaning into it these days — and is a four-time Grand Slam champion no matter how you slice it. She faces Lucia Bronzetti.
Elsewhere, Mirra Andreeva is dangerous, Madison Keys is on something of a clay-court hot streak, and the Fruhvirtova siblings could cause some chaos if they get through qualification.
Naomi Osaka, a tricky draw for anybody (Dan Istitene/Getty Images)
French Open 2024: Women’s first-round picks
- 🇨🇦 Bianca Andreescu vs 🇪🇸 Sara Sorribes Tormo
- 🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka vs 🇮🇹 Lucia Bronzetti
- 🇰🇿 Yulia Putintseva vs 🇺🇸 Sloane Stephens
- 🇹🇳 Ons Jabeur (8) vs 🇺🇸 Sachia Vickery
- 🇨🇳 Qinwen Zheng (7) vs 🇫🇷 Alize Cornet
- 🇷🇴 Sorana Cirstea (28) vs 🇷🇺 Anna Blinkova
- 🇬🇧 Katie Boulter (26) vs 🇪🇸 Paola Badosa
- 🇺🇦 Elina Svitolina (15) vs 🇨🇿 Karolina Pliskova
The main draws begin this Sunday, May 26. What are your stand-out first-round ties? And who do you see going all the way? Tell us in the comments…
(Top photos: Clive Mason; Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
