What To Look Out For As Real Madrid Face Borussia Dortmund In Champions League Final

These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.

The journey to the Champions League Final is never straightforward, but Real Madrid’s path this season has been nothing short of Herculean. Plagued by injuries that would have crippled most teams, they have managed to secure their spot in the final through tactical flexibility, the ascension of the remaining healthy players, and the emergence of new heroes.

Defying the Odds

Imagine a season where your first-choice goalkeeper, Thibaut Courtois, and stalwart defenders Eder Militao and David Alaba are all sidelined with ACL injuries. Then add the absence of your talismanic forward, Vinicius Jr., for nearly two months. Couple that with the fact that Karim Benzema was never adequately replaced, and Rodrygo Goes struggled with efficiency in front of goal throughout the first half of the season. For most teams, this woudl’ve been an opportunity to fold; melt under the circumstances. For Real Madrid, it was a call to arms — an opportunity to re-invent and produce new conquerers.

Andriy Lunin stepped up in goal, Dani Carvajal and Antonio Rudiger helped formed a resilient backline, and Jude Bellingham’s superhuman efforts both in attack and defense became a cornerstone of the team — especially to start the season when his goals were desperately needed.

When Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni were injured before Christmas, simultaneously, Carlo Ancelotti’s re-tooled the scheme to pair Toni Kroos and Federico Valverde in a double pivot. It worked wonders. The duo arguably had their best seasons yet, anchoring a team that boasted the best defense and most potent offense in the league.

When Vinicius Jr. returned, he returned with transcension in his boots. His magic elevated the team’s ceiling.

Toni Kroos’s send-off

Toni Kroos, playing his final game for Real Madrid, heads into the final as the competition’s leader in passes into the final third (106). His vision, verticality, and press resistance have been instrumental in Madrid’s journey to Wembley. His defensive contributions have also been crucial, adding an extra layer of security in midfield that the team needed in the knockout phases. As he dons the white shirt for the last time, all of what made him so instrumental to the team in midfield will be needed again — particularly as he looks to sling dagger passes behind Dortmund’s defensive line.

What out for a curve-ball hero: Joselu

While much of the spotlight has rightfully been on the stars, Don’t rule out Joselu being a difference-maker off the bench if the affair is cagey in the second half and Real Madrid need a goal. Despite not being prolific, Joselu’s impact has been significant, particularly in crucial moments. Joselu’s statistics are a bit, um, bonkers: He has slung 9.78 shots per 90 in the Champions League this season — far and away the most of anyone. Lautaro Martinez, second on the list, sits at 5.58. Joselu also has the highest goals per 90 in the competition, most noteably, his brace off the bench against Bayern Munich in the Champions League semi-finals catapulted the team to Wembley. The urgency of his presence will be determined by how efficient Vinicius and Rodrygo are tomorrow, but either way, Joselu should feature, as he is the team’s best aerial threat in response to the aerially-dominant Matts Hummels and Niclas Füllkrug, who will drop back to defend on set-pieces.

Dortmund’s path, also heroic

Like Madrid, Borussia Dortmund has navigated a challenging path to the final. While their Bundesliga campaign has been inconsistent, their Champions League run has been marked by tactical flexibility and defensive solidity. Mats Hummels is having a career year, leading the tournament in tackles, interceptions, and clearances. Behind him, goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been transcendent, boasting the best Post-Shot xG-GA in the competition while having the most clean sheets and most saves.

Dortmund can shape-shift and don’t have a singular identity, which is part of what makes them dangerous. Throughout the season they have shown they can counter-press, run in transition, defend in a low-block, punish teams in set-pieces, or have an efficient possession-based build-up structure.

Having the said that, there are two facets in particular they can post a threat to Real Madrid: 1) Set-pieces (or crosses); and 2) and transition attacks. Dortmund have scored 10 set-piece goals in the Bundesliga this season, and striker Niclas Füllkrug has won the most aerial duels in the Champions League (and Real Madrid’s set-piece defending has been poor all season). Dortmund can also break in numbers quickly. They morph quickly from a low block to attack with lightning speed, and numbers join the opposition’s half quickly. Sabitzer has been an excellent ball-carrier and leads the Champions League in assists. Jadon Sancho is dangerous and can exploit space behind the defensive line.

Takeaway quotes from today’s pre-game press conferences at Wembley

As both teams prepare for the showdown, I found these pre-game press conferences quotes interesting:

“Everyone is putting us up as favorites, but that’s not the case. I see it as 50-55%. Dortmund is a big team that has had a great season in the Champions League and will make it difficult. We need to concentrate and show it on the pitch.” – Luka Modric

“The priority is to transmit clear ideas to the players. To be as direct as possible because the more, the less nervous the team will be. I will go tactical. Emotions come later and everyone handles them according to their character. Before the match, there will be negative emotions, but fear is an important part of doing things well, we must know that. We have shown quality and collective sacrifice. Both will be key tomorrow.” – Carlo Ancelotti

“We are the team that has kept the most clean sheets in the competition, and the objective is to keep Madrid away from our goal.” – Edin Terzic

“We are a very different team than in September, more solid now. We have improved a lot and we must continue like this.” – Edin Terzic

“Yes, we have talked about Real Madrid’s weaknesses with the team, but I am not going to talk about this here. There are many things that I love about Madrid and there are other things we are going to try to take advantage of.” – Edin Terzic

How will this shake out? Real Madrid are favourites, but finals tend to be cagey, and Dortmund have the ability to draw this game out and frustrate Real Madrid.

Join us live one hour before the game.