AARAA Masthan’s Survey is the only Survey Agency that gave a chance to the YSR Congress. Around 40 Survey Agencies have given surveys about Andhra Pradesh, thirty-five of them are saying TDP+ will win Andhra Pradesh.
Masthan said the YSR Congress would win 94-104 seats in the state with a vote share of 49.41%. He predicted that the alliance parties would secure 71-81 seats with a vote share of 47.51%. Masthan opined that other party contestants and independent candidates would secure a vote share of 3.04%.
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He said that YCP would form the government once again with a higher vote share of 2% and by winning 20-25 seats more than the alliance of TDP-JSP-BJP.
He also added that around 80% of the Twenty-five YSR Congress Ministers are losing.
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However, there are many unexplained inconsistencies in his Survey Report.
If a majority of the ministers are losing, it is the biggest indication that the ruling party is on a sticky wicket.
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In many of the previous interviews, Masthan mentioned that Janasena’s Vote Share increased from 6% to 10%. This increase is definitely denting YSR Congress but he did not show the corresponding decrease in YSR Congress’s Vote Share.
Masthan gave a 3% Vote Share to Congress and Others. The same group got 4% in 2019. That means Sharmila’s factor led to a decrease in Congress Vote Share which is a joke.
He says the YSR Congress did not lose any Vote Share when compared to 2019. Then, what happened to that anti-incumbency in the Middle-Class, Upper Middle-Class, Jobless Youth, Rich, Urban Poor, etc?
AARAA has given 15-17 seats to the YSR Congress in Godavari districts. At the same time, he said Janasena is winning both of its MPs. He also said TDP’s Raghu Rama Krishna Raju is winning Undi.
He also added there is a tough fight in Rajahmundry Parliament and the winning margin will be very low.
Kakinada MP is a bit tough seat to Janasena and Undi is a challenge for TDP.
Rajahmundry Parliament has Reddy bastion, Anaparthi, and two SC seats – Gopalapuram and Kovvur. So, the YSR Congress does not have a decisive edge even in that Parliament.
Masthan says Janasena is getting 14-16 seats. Obviously, the majority should come from Godavari district because it contested more from there. At the same time, if YSR Congress wins 15-17 seats there. That means TDP has to win less than eight seats from the two districts.
Except for Pithapuram and Kakinada Rural, TDP is contesting the remaining five seats of Kakinada Parliament. How would Janasena win Kakinada if TDP is winning only eight seats in two districts?
If these three seats are going to the alliance, how would the YSR Congress register around half of the seats in Godavari districts?
Masthan said Sujana Chowdary is winning from Vijayawada West and Vishnu Kumar Raju will win Vizag North with a slender margin.
Vijayawada West is supposed to be the strongest seat of YSR Congress in Krishna district. TDP did not win this seat after 1983 election. How will a BJP candidate win there if there is no wave in favor of TDP+?
Vizag North is supposed to the only weak seat for TDP in Vizag City. If BJP is also winning that, it is clearly a wave. Also that reflects Urban anti-incumbency, but Masthan says YSR Congress’s Vote Share did not decrease at all when compared to 2019.
Masthan has got his 2014 AP Survey wrong and probably will add one more to his tally on June 4th.
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