It is just under two months since the Lok Sabha poll results came out but the dust has not settled in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP was pulled down the most and where the party remains convulsed by bickering, not-so-veiled criticism of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and counter-moves by the beleaguered CM.
It may still be early to call it a revolt but the face of the resistance is Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, a prominent OBC face who has long eyed the top job. The organisation, he said, was bigger than the governmenta pointed critique of the CM for his alleged over-reliance on bureaucrats. Maurya is supported by the other Deputy CM, Brajesh Pathak, and UP BJP chief Bhupendra Chaudhary who has briefed the PM on his assessment of the defeat.
The BJP’s partners in UP echoed Maurya’s words. Sanjay Nishad of the NISHAD Party blamed Yogi for his “bulldozer politics”. Anupriya Patel of the Apna Dal (Soneylal) criticised the government for virtually “dereserving” seats meant for OBCs. Yogi promptly met Pallavi Patel of the rival Apna Dal (K) who had in 2022 defeated Keshav Prasad Maurya.
In private, many speak about “sabotage” in the election and the manner, for instance, in which Rajputs — the community to which Yogi belongs — “sat at home” or voted against the BJP. During the campaign, many Rajputs said they had “heard” that with “400 paar” the BJP brass could shunt Yogi out of Lucknow and send him to Delhi.
There is growing concern in the party now that it has to win back the support of the non-Yadav OBCs, and Dalits in UP who this time switched to vote for the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress. The party is also aware that once these ground-level shifts start in UP – given their scale and scope – it may be difficult to reverse course.
Yogi is increasingly being seen today as a leader of the Rajputs with Maurya being hardly a match. In the Lok Sabha elections, the party fared poorly in what is considered the Maurya belt (the Allahabad division). Given the way the BJP functions, it is hard to believe that Maurya can take a swipe at the CM, or stay away from a “review” meeting, without the support, tacit or otherwise, of powerful quarters in the party.
For his part, Yogi has let it be known — and reportedly also conveyed to the RSS leadership — that his views on candidates were not taken on board by the central leadership; that he wanted many sitting MPs replaced but his voice was ignored; and that his photos were absent from PM poll posters.
The open tug-of-war in the party over UP and in UP begs the question: does the central leadership see Yogi as part of the party’s recovery plan in the state? Is the current turbulence a way to maintain pressure on Yogi and circumscribe the CM’s powers, restoring a balance between the two factions in Lucknow?
Messages are being sent to both Yogi and his detractors from the high command to step back from the line rather than push it. The coexistence of a powerful PM and a strong CM poses challenges in the best of times; it becomes more problematic when the party begins to rapidly lose ground in a vital state.
The BJP leadership knows only too well that adventurism in UP is a risky proposition. Though state elections are three years away, a victory doesn’t look like a BJP cakewalk. The 2024 chemistry between “UP ke do ladke (Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi)” has also contributed to the resurgence of the SP and the Congress.
Moreover, Yogi Adityanath is not a Shivraj Chouhan. Though Chouhan was responsible for taking the BJP to victory in Madhya Pradeshhe was not made the CM. Chouhan was readily accommodated in the Cabinet with a portfolio he has a solid record in.
Yogi is a different mould. He isn’t one to walk away into the sunset. As head of the influential Goraknath Mutt, he has a following independent of the BJP. His loyal foot soldiers in the Hindu Yuva Vahini may have been dormant in recent years but can be rallied around. As CM, he acquired an appeal beyond UP and was sent to campaign for the party in other states. His over-reliance on the bureaucracy and his wariness of political colleagues may have come in for criticism but he is seen as a no-nonsense leader who has improved the “law and order” situation in the state.
The Sangh is ambivalent. The RSS backed him for CM’s post in 2017 but some in the organisation view him as an “outsider” although one who is a Hindutva icon and may further the RSS agenda. The UP order, now stayed by the Supreme Court, to display the name of the owner of eateries on the Kanwar Yatra route, was calculated to polarise.
The BJP leadership would also be wary of rocking the boat in UP in the run-up to the crucial state elections in MaharashtraHaryana, and Jharkhand, states where the party suffered reverses. A victory in these states is critical for Modi to seize the political initiative again, counter the impression that the party is losing ground. A win in Maharashtra, for example, could strengthen the party’s hand to take a risk in UP.
Clearly, UP is the post-2024 battleground for the BJP, the state where the reduced tally’s shadow looms the largest – making Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi smile.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Expresshas covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)
