Winning your conference is very important in the era of the expanded College Football Playoff.
The top four conference champions will receive byes to the second round of the 12-team postseason. With just four power conferences remaining following the demise of the Pac-12, a league title is essentially a guaranteed off week.
With the 2024 season quickly approaching, here’s a look at the Big 12 — a conference that looks to be extremely deep, even if it doesn’t have a top-tier national title contender.
[All power conference previews: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC]
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Utah (+275)
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Kansas State (+375)
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Oklahoma State (+700)
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Kansas (+900)
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UCF (+900)
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Iowa State (+900)
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Arizona (+1400)
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Texas Tech (+1600)
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TCU (+2000)
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West Virginia (+2000)
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Colorado (+2500)
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Baylor (+6000)
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Cincinnati (+8000)
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Arizona State (+10000)
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BYU (+15000)
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Houston (+15000)
Is this the most even conference?
The Big 12 has the most teams of any power conference at 20-1 or better to win the conference title and make the College Football Playoff. While the Big 12 may not have a consensus top-five or even top-10 team in its ranks, this conference boasts a lot of depth — and a lot of teams that think they can win it and get into the playoff.
Utah enters its first season in the Big 12 as the favorite with the return of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Both players missed the 2023 season with knee injuries.
Rising is entering his seventh season of college football and is a sleeper Heisman candidate assuming he’s fully recovered from the significant injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl 20 months ago. Utah’s offense was dreadful without him in 2023 and simply having the threat of both the run and the pass will go a long way to complement a defense that should still be very, very good.
Kansas State is the No. 2 favorite as the Wildcats boast one of the more intriguing rushing offenses entering the season. Avery Johnson takes over at QB after he played a limited role in 2023. He’s a speed demon and averaged 5.7 yards a carry. Joining him in the backfield are running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. Giddens rushed for over 1,200 yards last season and Edwards, a Kansas native, arrives after spending his freshman season at Colorado. He was more dynamic with the Buffaloes as a receiver than he was a rusher, but that could totally have been a product of Colorado’s porous offensive line.
Oklahoma State made the Big 12 title game a season ago after a strong regular season following a Week 2 blowout loss to South Alabama. The Cowboys bring a lot of players back from that 10-4 season, including RB Ollie Gordon. He’s probably the Heisman favorite among non-QBs. The ceiling of the Oklahoma State offense will hinge on Alan Bowman. The former Texas Tech and Michigan QB is, like Rising, entering his seventh season, but averaged less than seven yards an attempt last season.
Making the case for the next tier
As the odds suggest, you can make realistic Big 12 title game cases for a handful of teams outside the top three favorites.
Kansas QB Jalon Daniels was the preseason player of the year a season ago but missed much of 2023 with a back injury. Kansas has averaged over 34 points per game in each of the past two seasons and made a three-game jump in 2023 because of improvements on defense. The defense may not be excellent, but it should be good enough to keep the Jayhawks in the hunt if Daniels is healthy for the entire season.
UCF added former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson over the offseason and he could be a fantastic fit in Gus Malzahn’s offense. Jefferson was a bewildering player at times with the Razorbacks, and if he can cut down on the mistakes, UCF’s offense has a very high ceiling.
Iowa State’s offense should improve in 2024 after Rocco Becht emerged as the team’s starting QB as a freshman. RB Abu Sama averaged over seven yards a carry last season and WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are both back. The November schedule is incredibly tough for the Cyclones, however. They visit both Kansas and Utah and have Kansas State at home to end the season.
Arizona could be a little undervalued at +1400. The Wildcats have a new coach in former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, but the offense brings back QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan along with four starters on the offensive line. September will be a good measuring stick for the Wildcats with games at Kansas State and Utah.
Just how good will Colorado be?
The team getting the most attention in the conference also has very little shot of playing for the title. Never say never, of course, but it’ll be a shock if the Buffaloes make the Big 12 championship game.
Year 2 of the Deion Sanders era equals another remade roster with a focus on the offensive line. QB Shedeur Sanders was sacked over 50 times in 2023 and Colorado simply could not run the football.
Remodeled offensive lines usually take time, however. And Colorado doesn’t really have the benefit of time to maximize this season before Shedeur Sanders and star CB/WR Travis Hunter head to the NFL. One of the new projected starters on the line is five-star freshman Jordan Seaton. He’s got a lot of responsibility already.
The realistic best-case scenario for Colorado this season should be a bowl game. The team’s over/under of 5.5 wins at BetMGM feels perfect, and you can make solid cases for both sides of that number. If the roster is truly better than it was a season ago, asking for two more wins than 2023 isn’t that much of a stretch.
Conversely, Colorado’s schedule is tough. North Dakota State isn’t a pushover and both Nebraska and Colorado State are aiming to be better in 2024. The Buffs’ conference schedule features seven teams that made bowl games a season ago and the top five favorites for the conference title. If all five of those games are losses, then Colorado’s margin for bowl error is very thin.
