The BJP and Congress are locked in an intense battle in Jammu and Kashmir. (File)
The three-phase elections for the 90 seats in Jammu & Kashmir concluded on October 1, marking the first assembly polls in the union territory since 2014. The results will be announced on October 8 (Monday). The five nominated MLAs will bring the number of seats in the assembly to 95
Sofi Yusuf, Jammu and Kashmir’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Vice-President, said on Monday that the five Members of Legislative Assembly (MLA) in the union territory, to be nominated by the Lieutenant Governor, will be from the saffron party.
“All candidates will be from the BJP — Ashok Kaul, Rajni Sethi, Sunil Sethi, Dr Fareeda Khan and our Mahila Morcha leader Sanjita Dogra. It’s our government at the Centre and we will give the names. We are getting these five seats,” said Yusuf.
ALSO READ | Jammu And Kashmir Exit Poll Result 2024: NC-Congress Combine Has Edge But BJP Snapping at Heels
The Congress, meanwhile, said that such nominations, without consulting the elected members, would go against the “mandate of the people”.
With the exit polls suggesting a hung assembly, here’s how these five seats could prove to be a gamechanger.
Senior BJP Leader Sofi Yousf claims that all 5 MLAs to be nominated by LG will be BJP Leaders and he even names them.Open misuse of the institution and the Centre’s powers to alter the mandate.. pic.twitter.com/JS5qJpxRUv
— J&K Congress (@INCJammuKashmir) October 7, 2024
WHY J&K WILL GET FIVE NOMINATED MLAS
The three-phase elections for the 90 seats in Jammu & Kashmir concluded on October 1, marking the first assembly polls in the union territory since 2014. The results will be announced on October 8 (Monday).
The provision to nominate two women existed in the erstwhile state of J&K. As part of the amendments made to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, the Home Ministry advised the five nominations — two seats for Kashmiri Pandits and one for Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) refugees, in addition to two women. They were approved by the Lieutenant Governor.
The provision was incorporated in the Reorganisation Act in 2023 on the recommendations of the delimitation commission headed by justice (retired) Ranjana Desai, expanding the assembly and raising the majority threshold to 48 seats.
This provision only exists in the assemblies of union territories of Puducherry (three nominated MLAs) and Jammu & Kashmir (five nominated MLAs).
EXIT POLL PREDICTIONS
J&K registered a voting percentage of 63.45 per cent, higher than the turnout recorded in the April-June Lok Sabha elections.
According to the Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance could win 35-40 seats. The BJP may end up with an impressive 20-25 seats. With 12-16 seats, independent candidates may surpass the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which may get 4-7 seats.
The Gulistan exit poll predicts a much closer contest, with 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress combine and a stunning 28-30 for the BJP. It also indicates a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.
The C-Voter survey predicted 30-48 seats for the NC-Congress coalition, with BJP bagging 27-32. The PDP may end up with 6-12 seats, on par with independents who could get 6-11 seats.
The survey by People’s Pulse suggested the NC-Congress combine may emerge victorious with 46-50 seats, with the BJP bagging 23-27. The PDP may get 7-11 seats and independents 6-10.
THE POLL ARITHMETIC
The five nominated MLAs will bring the number of seats in the assembly to 95.
This, in effect, means that the NC-Congress needs 48 elected MLAs to form the government, while the BJP would require only 43 elected MLAs to reach the majority mark of 48.
#WATCH | Jammu and Kashmir: Congress leader Ravinder Sharma says, “Congress and National Conference believe that we will have enough majority to form the government. Counting of votes will take place on October 8. For example, one alliance gets 47 seats out of 90 seats and… pic.twitter.com/tjF9YIpI73— ANI (@ANI) October 4, 2024
OPPOSITION NOT CONVINCED
However, Congress leader Ravinder Sharma said that the Lieutenant Governor should only act based on the advice of the council of ministers, which would be formed after the election.
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Sharma told ANI, “The Congress and NC believe that we will have enough majority to form the government. Counting of votes will take place on October 8. For example, one alliance gets 47 seats out of 90 seats and another alliance gets 43 seats. 46 seats are required to form the government. LG has the right to nominate five members. So if the Governor nominates these five people before the formation of the government on the instructions of the Centre or anyone else, then the number of 43 will become 48 and the alliance which has got 47 seats, which has got the mandate from the people of Jammu and Kashmir, will be in minority. This will be a betrayal of the mandate of democracy…So we have requested the LG not to do anything which is against the mandate of the people.”
With Inputs From Ieshan Wani
