Last Updated:
Washington had refused to allow missile strikes against Russia as it feared escalation. But the policy reversal comes two months before Donald Trump, who is skeptical of the US aid to Ukraine, will take over the White House
President Vladimir Putin said in September that the West would be fighting Russia directly if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles. (Reuters/ Illustration by Shubhangi Sharma)
The outgoing Joe Biden administration has permitted Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles for limited strikes inside Russia. Such escalation could lead to World War III, according to Russian lawmakers.
Washington had previously refused to allow such strikes against Russia as it feared escalation. But the policy reversal comes two months before Donald Trump, who is sceptical of US aid to Ukraine, will take over the White House in January.
Trump’s team also suspects that the incoming US administration will allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons inside Russia.
Trump has reiterated quite a few times before taking over the presidency that he would end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East in his second term.
What Is Russia’s Warning Against Ukraine’s Missile Use?
“The West has decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning,” Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app, as quoted by Reuters.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house’s international affairs committee, said that Moscow’s response will be immediate. This would be “a very big step towards World War 3″, TASS state news agency quoted Dzhabarov as saying.
Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma lower house’s foreign affairs committee, said US-authorised strikes by Kyiv on Russia with ATACMS missiles would lead to the toughest response, Russian news agencies reported.
President Vladimir Putin had earlier said in September that the West would be fighting Russia directly if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the conflict.
Why Has Biden Made This Decision?
President Biden has always opposed the use of US weapons against Russia, fearing that it would drag the US and its NATO allies into a direct confrontation with Russia.
But Biden has relented, after momentum shifted towards Russia. The current move by the US tells Ukraine that it will support its efforts to hold on to a small chunk of Russian territory, which could be used as a “bargaining chip” for any possible negotiations in the future, as per a report by the BBC.
Reports suggest that Biden’s decision will enable Britain and France to grant Ukraine permission to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia.
Neither the UK nor France has responded to Biden’s decision.
What Does Trump Think?
The President-elect has not said he would continue the policy, but some of his aides have already criticised financial and military aid to Ukraine.
Donald Trump Jr, Trump’s son, wrote on social media: “The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War Three going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.”
Trump’s Vice-President-elect JD Vance said the US should not provide any more military aid to Ukraine.
Many Ukrainian officials fear that Trump will cut off the arms supply when he takes over as president in January.
What Are ATACMS That Can Be Used Against Russia?
The ATACMS (pronounced “attack ‘ems”) are manufactured by Lockheed Martin, and are some of the most powerful ballistic missiles provided to Ukraine.
With a warhead containing about 375 pounds of explosives, the missile can strike targets 190 miles away, and can fly much higher in the atmosphere than artillery rockets.
ATACMS can be fired from the HIMARS mobile launchers that the US has provided Ukraine, as well as from older M270 launchers sent from Britain and Germany.
The ATACMS missile was developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets deep behind enemy lines, according to The New York Times.
The missiles are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops to support Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, according to US officials, The Times quoted.
Why Did The US Wait?
Since the time when the Ukraine war started in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded for weapons that can hit even deeper into Russian-held territory, and eventually Russia.
The US had provided Ukraine with ATACMS last year, but forbade its use against Russia as it feared that Putin might respond by escalating. “We’re trying to avoid World War III,” Biden has said.
Zelensky has justified the need for such weapons as it would be crucial for Ukraine’s wider counteroffensive. He insisted that he has no plans to use them against Russia or target civilians.
What Could Be The Impact?
The missiles will help Ukraine strike targets inside Russia, most likely around the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian army holds over 1,000 sq km of territory.
In return, Ukraine can expect a counter-offensive by the Russian and North Korean troops to regain territory in Kursk.
Reports suggest that Russia has already moved its military equipment such as jets to airfields further inside Russia in anticipation of such a decision.
When Did the US Use ATACMS In Combat?
The US military fired 30 ATACMS in 1991 during Operation Desert Storm against Iraq’s medium-range ballistic missile launchers and surface-to-air missile sites.
According to The New York Timesthe first-generation ATACMS could fly about 100 miles and released 950 bomblets.
In the 2003 invasion, the US Army also fired more than 400 of the bomblet-carrying tactical missiles in Operation Iraqi Freedom.
