Dalton Del Don reveals pitching values being suppressed by injury risk or other circumstances fantasy baseball managers can exploit this draft season.
DeGrom’s risk brings potentially huge reward
Jacob deGrom hasn’t reached 100.0 innings pitched since 2019 and is 36 years old, so he carries obvious risk with his services costing a top-50 pick. After continuously missing time with arm troubles, deGrom finally underwent (a second) Tommy John surgery in June 2023. His velocity was a bit down after returning late last season, but the results remained dominant; deGrom’s 29.5 K-BB% and 33.1% CSW would have comfortably led the league. That came in a tiny sample, but deGrom figures to be fully recovered even more so in 2025.
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Just like Chris Sale last season, deGrom is a former ace who’s older but coming off his first normal offseason in years. DeGrom owns a 2.07 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 30.5 K-BB% since 2018, which all lead MLB starters by a wide margin. And his arm might be healthier now than during a big stretch of that span. DeGrom can still make a major impact on your ratios even if he’s limited to 100 innings, and he can win the Cy Young if he reaches 175.
DeGrom is the No. 3 SP on my board.
Still plenty of room for profit on Crochet
Garrett Crochet has a wide range of rankings right now. The downside is he was limited to four innings or fewer in all 14 of his final starts last season, when he posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over that span. He’ll also now have to pitch his home games in Fenway Park, which has been baseball’s second-best hitter’s park over the last three seasons.
But Crochet’s limited workload and wearing down were expected while starting for the first time in his career. Moreover, even with the fading, Crochet’s SIERA (2.53) would’ve led all qualified starters. His CSW (30.7%) and K-BB% (29.6) would’ve both ranked top 10. Crochet will receive far better run (and bullpen) support with the Red Sox, who gave up a sizable prospect haul when trading for him. THE BAT projects Crochet to have the league’s best K% among all starters in 2025.
Crochet is often a top-20 pick in the NFBC, but his early Yahoo ADP is around 40, so he’s an SP to target.
Upside sleeper pick in Tampa Bay
Drew Rasmussen will have workload restrictions with three arm surgeries in his past and pitching mostly in relief last season, but he’s intriguing with the move back to the rotation. Rasmussen re-signed in Tampa Bay during the offseason with the intention of starting, as he thinks it’s the best route for him to stay healthy. Rasmussen’s stats last year may have been inflated pitching out of the bullpen, but it’s worth noting how truly elite his 28.2 innings were; his 1.35 FIP would’ve led all pitchers, and his 34.1% CSW would’ve ranked fourth among relievers (and led starters). Rasmussen recorded a 2.84 ERA when he last started in 2022, and his stuff is legit.
Rasmussen will no longer benefit from pitching in Tropicana Field with the Rays moving this season, but few pitchers at his ADP possess his upside.
Overlooked arm in Minnesota
David Festa isn’t guaranteed a spot in Minnesota’s rotation as of now, but he was the Twins’ top pitching prospect before debuting last season. After a rough first two starts (that included an 8:1 K:BB ratio), Festa posted a 3.15 FIP with a 30.0 K% over his final 54.1 innings. That K rate would have ranked fourth among starters last season. Festa’s BB% (8.3) needs to improve, but that seems doable since it also comes with a 29.0% CSW. Festa’s 4.90 ERA was accompanied by a 3.58 SIERA that would’ve ranked top-15 among qualified starters (and that counts his first two ugly starts). Festa’s LOB% will regress, and his strikeout upside is legit. Festa is a late-round sleeper to target.
Boyd is a great late-round target
Matthew Boyd was dominant while returning from Tommy John surgery last season, posting a 3.29 FIP with a 19.9 K-BB% that would’ve been top-15 among qualified starters. Boyd’s 29.9% CSW would’ve ranked seventh, just behind Logan Gilbert. THE BAT projects Boyd to have the 36th-best K% among SPs in 2025, just behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He enters 2025 entrenched in Chicago’s rotation after signing a lucrative deal during the offseason, and he’ll benefit from pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field.
Boyd’s workload may be somewhat limited, but in an era when fewer and fewer pitchers are throwing 200+ innings, fantasy managers can be happy with 160. Boyd has been going undrafted in more than half of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a late-round flier to target.
BONUS: TV Talk
“Silo” stuck the landing in Season 2. Great show, and I should’ve ranked it much higher in my 2024 Best of TV list … “Severance” is a trip and the early favorite for 2025’s best show … “Paradise” is very intriguing through the first three episodes released. It’s best to go in not knowing anything … “The Pitt” is a fun new medical drama — think “ER” meets “24” … “The Traitors” and “Beast Games” are good shows to watch with your kids … “American Manhunt: O.J. Simpson” is a compelling documentary … In case you missed my favorite movies from 2024.
