With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opt Supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 25
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches, with the league table having now firmly taken shape as we get stuck into the second half of the season.
Arsenal remain Liverpool’s closest challengers at the top of the standings, with Nottingham Forest not far behind the Gunners in third place. Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton find themselves in trouble at the other end of the table.
Matchday 25 will see fixtures spread across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Brighton & Hove Albion will host Chelsea in a rematch of their FA Cup fourth-round tie to get things up and running in an enticing Friday night fixture. Enzo Maresca’s visitors are now back in the top four after beating West Ham in their last top-flight game.
Seven matches on Saturday include what could be an entertaining battle between two sides chasing UEFA Champions League spots with champions Manchester City hosting EFL Cup finalists Newcastle United.
Liverpool will look to maintain their lead at the top of the table when they welcome Wolverhampton Wanderers to Anfield on Sunday, while two under-pressure teams do battle as Tottenham Hotspur face Manchester United.
Ahead of what looks set to be a thrilling group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 25: The Quick Hits
- Despite their painful losses to Arsenal and Real Madrid, Man City go in as favourites for their key home clash with top-four rivals Newcastle.
- The Opta supercomputer is confident in Arsenal and Bournemouth’s chances in their away matches this week, but thinks Nottingham Forest are in for a tough afternoon at Fulham.
- Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Liverpool backed for home wins, with Arne Slot’s league leaders being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 25 as they face Wolves.
The action begins on Friday at the Amex Stadium, where Brighton (33.8%) are targeting another victory over Chelsea (41.1%) less than a week after they eliminated the Blues from the FA Cup.
As well as going out of the cup on the road, Chelsea are currently on the longest active winless streak away from home in the Premier League, going four such games without a victory since beating Tottenham 4-3 in early December.
Brighton, however, are winless in five league matches at the Amex, so something has to give.
The Seagulls suffered their heaviest league defeat since 1958 (9-0 versus Middlesbrough) last time out in the top flight, going down 7-0 at Nottingham Forest, so could therefore now suffer three consecutive league losses for the first time since March 2022, when they lost six in a row under Graham Potter, six months before he swapped the south coast for Chelsea.
The Opta prediction model makes Chelsea slight favourites in this one, but thinks Brighton are more likely than not to get at least something out of the game.
In Saturday’s early kick-off, relegation-threatened Leicester City welcome Arsenal to the King Power Stadium.
Since Ruud van Nistelrooy’s first game in charge of Leicester in December, only Southampton have lost more games (nine) or won fewer points (four) than the Foxes, who have suffered eight defeats and collected just seven points. They are given just a 12.1% chance of an upset win.
Arsenal may be depleted in attack, but they are still huge favourites, winning in 69.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, making them the most likely away winners across Matchday 25.
The Gunners have won 21 of their last 25 league games against sides sitting in the relegation zone, with three draws and just one loss.
Aston Villa will look to bounce back from their derby loss to Wolves when they welcome Ipswich Town to Villa Park. Victorious in 64.6% of match simulations, Unai Emery’s side are big favourites against their struggling visitors, whose win probability stands at 16.3%.
Since the start of 2023-24, only Everton and Brentford have won a larger share of their total points at home than Villa (60% – 63/105) among current sides in the division. They are unbeaten in their last 11 league games at Villa Park since losing 2-0 against Arsenal in their opening home game of the season.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have suffered four straight league defeats – their longest losing run of the campaign. They last lost more consecutive league matches between October and December 2011 under Paul Jewell (seven straight defeats in the Championship).
Nottingham Forest are looking to back up their stunning win over Brighton when they travel to play Fulham on the road.
Forest recorded their biggest league victory in any division since 1991 in that clash, but they’re given just a 29.2% chance of hitting the 50-point mark for the season on Saturday.
Fulham going in as slight favourites is perhaps understandable, as they have won four of their five EPL games against Forest (L1), including both meetings at Craven Cottage by an aggregate score of 7-0. They have a 44% chance of making it three on the bounce.
But while they are set for a stern test, Forest, who went all the way to penalties in the FA Cup on Tuesday, are tough to beat, currently on a run of eight wins in 10 in the top-flight (D1 L1).
The 26.8% chance of a draw is therefore worthy of consideration – and this is the most likely match across the 10 fixtures this week to finish all square.
Manchester City and Newcastle United are both looking to bounce back from losses last time out as they aim to keep pressure on the top four.
City have a good record in this fixture, losing just one of their last 34 league games against Newcastle, while they have scored in 32 straight matches against the Magpies in the competition.
Newcastle’s defeat to Fulham in their last EPL game was a second consecutive home loss, but they are in fine form on the road. They have won four consecutive away games in the competition and are looking to win five in a row for the first time since 1994.
Our predictive model is backing Man City, with Pep Guardiola’s side given a 49% chance of bouncing back from their damaging 5-1 defeat to Arsenal last time out in the league and their 3-2 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League play-off round first leg.
Newcastle’s hopes are not completely discounted at 28% and the draw is given a 23% chance.
Southampton (19.8%) are desperate to record back-to-back wins when they face fellow south coast club Bournemouth (57.9%).
Saints last won successive Premier League games in February 2022, but they come into this one having lost six consecutive home league matches, having conceded 22 goals in that time, so are seen as significant underdogs by the supercomputer.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, are enjoying their longest ever unbeaten run on the road in the competition, winning four and drawing two of their last six matches. The Cherries have also lost just one of their last 12 games against sides starting the day in the bottom three, a run that includes triumphs in all three such games this season.
West Ham will be desperate to respond after throwing away a lead at Chelsea and can move further clear of the bottom three with a win over Brentford.
Still looking for stability under Potter, West Ham – who are unbeaten in their last two matches against the Bees – are given a very slight edge in this game by the Opta supercomputer at 40.5%.
However, it is expected to be a tight one, with Brentford given a 34.4% chance of winning a third consecutive top-flight away game, while a draw sits at 25.1%.
Brentford are struggling for goals at the moment, failing to score in four of their last eight top-flight matches, but West Ham could prove good opponents for them as the Bees have scored in all seven previous meetings.
After their dramatic midweek Merseyside derby draw against Liverpool, next up for Everton is an away trip to play in-form Crystal Palace.
Palace have struggled against the Toffees for some time, winning just one of the last 20 league meetings, with Everton winning 10 and nine draws.
But Palace do have striker Jean Philippe-Mateta in good form. He has scored six goals in five top-flight games so far in 2025 and needs one more goal to move level with Christian Benteke (35) as Crystal Palace’s second-top Premier League scorer (Wilfried Zaha is top with 68).
And it is Palace who are backed for victory here. The hosts have a 50.4% win probability with Everton’s chance being 23.4%, so another draw (26.4%) may end up being an acceptable outcome for David Moyes.
Into Sunday’s fixtures and Liverpool will host Wolveswho earned a much-needed win over rivals Aston Villa last time out in the league before progressing in the FA Cup, something the Reds were unable to do against Championship strugglers Plymouth Argyle.
Liverpool are seven points clear at the top after their draw at Goodison Park on Wednesday and will be optimistic about strengthening their position having won nine of their last 10 home league games with Wolves.
Cody Agat has scored in each of his last six top-flight starts at Anfield and could now become just the fourth Liverpool player to net in seven or more successive home EPL starts. If he achieves the feat, Gakpo will follow Fernando Torres in May 2008 (8), Luis Suárez in January 2014 (8), and current team-mate Mohamed is wrong twice (7 in April 2018 and 8 in May 2023).
The Reds are overwhelming favourites in this one at 81.8%, which is the highest win probability given to any team this week, with Wolves’ chance of an upset way down at 6.9%.
Tottenham (39.8%) face Manchester United (35.7%) in the last match of the week, though when the season began few would have expected these teams to be 14th and 13th in the table respectively going into a flagship match in the middle of February.
Spurs convincingly won at Old Trafford in September and now eyeing a league double over the Red Devils in the first time in the Premier League era, having not done so since 1989-90.
Since Ruben Amorim took charge in November, only five sides have picked up fewer points than United’s 14. The visitors will again be reliant on Amad Dialloas no Red Devils player has scored more goals (6) or provided more assists (6) in this season’s top-flight than him. The winger has gone three straight league games without a goal involvement, so will be eager to get back on track here.
The Opta supercomputer can barely split these sides, so MD 25 is set to conclude with a game where everything is to play for. Spurs also beat United in the EFL Cup this season and they are given the most marginal edge by the supercomputer, but Amorim’s men go in with a fighting chance and the draw is also a consideration at 24.5%.
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