Recent calculations suggest that an asteroid previously believed to have an increased chance of striking Earth could instead crash into the Moon.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) recently re-evaluated the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4finding that its odds of impacting Earth in 2032 had risen from 1% to 2.3%. However, new research by University of Arizona astronomer David Rankin indicates that while the risk to Earth remains, there is also a small 0.3% chance that the 90-meter-wide space rock could veer off course and collide with the Moon instead.
Without an atmosphere to slow it down, an asteroid impact on the Moon could be far more dramatic than on Earth. If the 90-meter-wide space rock were to collide with the lunar surface, it could create a crater hundreds of meters wide, sending debris flying into space. Scientists also speculate that if asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon, some of the ejected debris could eventually make its way back to Earth.
Dr Rankin told New Scientist, “There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.”
The asteroid, noticed for the first time on 27 December last year, is still a mystery as we don’t know the trajectory as of yet. NASA plans to continue monitoring the massive asteroid and anticipates that further observations could lower the estimated risk of it colliding with Earth.
NASA said in a statement, “There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in.” It also added, “New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in.” Meanwhile, space agencies worldwide are actively exploring strategies to defend against dangerous “city-killer” asteroids like 2024 YR4.
Scientists are testing various experimental methods to deflect hazardous asteroids, including crashing spacecraft into them or using nuclear explosions to alter their trajectory. China has also stepped up its planetary defense efforts, recently announcing job openings for a specialized “planetary defense post.” According to a report from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Tuesday, the country’s State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defence—responsible for aerospace research—is recruiting graduates to focus on asteroid monitoring and defense strategies.
Last year, China unveiled a conceptual plan for a mission aimed at studying an asteroid and redirecting its course by crashing a spacecraft into it, with a target timeline around 2030. Meanwhile, asteroid 2024 YR4 is projected to make a safe pass by Earth in 2028. Scientists hope to use this opportunity to gather more data and refine their predictions about its potential impact risk in 2032.
