Recording a much-needed signature win a month before the NCAA Tournament, the UConn Huskies (+250) are the new national championship favorite in women’s college basketball after their convincing road win at South Carolina.
UConn snapping South Carolina’s 71-game home winning streak headlined a week of major shake-ups in women’s college hoops. Six of the top seven teams played each other last week — including USC and superstar JuJu Watkins defeating previously unbeaten UCLA, and Texas beating LSU to add to a string of recent top-10 victories.
The new favorites atop the national championship odds at BetMGM, UConn showed a championship ceiling in dismantling the defending national champions by 29 on their home floor. But the women’s college basketball season is still wide open. There are plenty of powerhouse programs still in the mix as the regular season wraps up.
Women’s college basketball national title odds
UConn makes its move
UConn’s blowout win over South Carolina answered some championship concerns. After losses to Notre Dame, USC and Tennessee earlier this season, UConn needed to knock off an elite opponent to feel comfortable going deep into March.
Now with the win over South Carolina, the Huskies can work on securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the NCAA’s first top 16 seeding reveal last weekend, UConn was a No. 2 seed and the No. 7 team overall. The win over the Gamecocks, which didn’t factor into those seeds, will undoubtedly help the Huskies in future reveals. Lacking the quality wins of many of their No. 1 seed counterparts, however, the Huskies likely need to win out in the weak Big East and get additional help to earn a top seed.
Recent strong play from redshirt junior sharpshooter Azzi Fudd elevates the Huskies to another level. Recovering from a torn ACL suffered last season, Fudd took a few months to acclimate into UConn’s offense this season before settling in the last six weeks.
Following a career-high 34 points in a win over St. John’s last week, Fudd erupted for 28 points and six 3-pointers against the Gamecocks. Fudd regularly leads UConn in scoring — six times over the past 12 games — after not doing so the first 15 games of the season.
Consistent scoring and perimeter spacing from Fudd gives the Huskies a talented third option to go along with star Paige Bueckers and freshman standout Sarah Strong.
There isn’t a massive difference between a No. 1 and No. 2 seed with regards to UConn’s title hopes, but a top seed, of course, gives UConn an easier Elite Eight draw than having to face a No. 1 seed before the Final Four.
South Carolina stays in the mix
Previously the favorite to win the national championship, South Carolina (+325) fell to second on the odds board after the loss to UConn.
The blowout is notable for South Carolina because the Gamecocks were completely outplayed on both ends of the floor. After getting outrebounded in recent losses against both Texas and UConn, undersized South Carolina faces questions on the interior.
It’s still too early to be concerned about South Carolina’s season based on two losses to elite teams. The Gamecocks were ranked second among the four No. 1 seeds in preliminary tournament seeding on Sunday before the UConn loss.
Five straight wins over ranked teams in January shows South Carolina can get hot and beat a string of great opponents.
How the Gamecocks respond to the recent losses in the next few games will determine their status going forward. In the midst of four straight Final Four appearances, South Carolina has a habit of deep tournament runs.
Notre Dame maintains its dominance
Notre Dame (+450) ascended to No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in six years after the chaotic week of top-10 matchups. The Irish maintain an 18-game winning streak and are undefeated in the ACC.
With wins over title contenders UConn, USC and Texas, while getting tested by No. 11 Duke in a win Monday, Notre Dame is positioned for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Behind a potent offense led by Wooden Award candidate Hannah Hidalgo, there’s a lot to like about the Irish in March.
A pair of Los Angeles rivals stay involved
The next tier of teams includes a pair of Los Angeles rivals tied atop the Big Ten standings with one loss each.
USC (+650) handed UCLA (+450) its first loss of the season last week. JuJu Watkins totaled 38 points, 11 rebounds, eight blocks and five assists to lead the Trojans while elevating to the top of the Wooden Award leaderboard.
Following a week with top-10 wins over Ohio State and the Bruins, USC is positioned for a solid stretch run.
The Bruins were the last unbeaten team in women’s college basketball before losing to USC. UCLA earned a solid bounce-back win over Michigan State for the team’s seventh top-25 win this season.
UCLA hosts the rematch with USC on March 1, in a matchup that could decide the Big Ten and No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
SEC stays involved
The SEC has more to offer in the national title landscape outside of South Carolina. Texas (+600) is on top of the SEC standings after knocking off the Gamecocks, Kentucky and LSU over an eight-day span.
Beating three top-10 teams in a row despite making three total 3-pointers, Texas is winning despite its ugly 30 percent 3-point shooting. The Longhorns made a big move up the odds board early this week jumping from +1000 to +600.
LSU (+2000) hovers in the title picture despite its loss to Texas. The Tigers’ only other loss came against South Carolina. On the positive end of things, LSU offers a sweep of Tennessee and a recent win over Oklahoma on its resume.
It’s conceivable that LSU gets hot in March thanks to a trio of potent scorers led by Flau’Jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow. The Tigers face a pair of top-20 road tests coming up against Kentucky and Alabama next week before the SEC tournament that could show if they’re capable of bigger things in the postseason.
Title picks from our staff
Ben Pickman: If you’re looking to get great value, Texas (+600) feels worthwhile to me. The Longhorns are top-10 in both offensive and defensive ratings, play a physical defense that routinely frustrates opponents and have legitimate stars capable of taking over games (in Madison Booker and Rori Harmon). Their two losses came in overtime to Notre Dame and to South Carolina in mid-January, but they’ve rebounded since the latter defeat. Their recent four-game stretch of games against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU was as impressive of a four-game stretch as any team in the nation has recorded this year. Texas is currently No. 2 in the AP poll but has the fifth-best title odds. The imbalance there feels worth taking advantage.
Sabreena Merchant: I’m riding with Notre Dame. Any team with an All-American point guard catches my eye in March, and the Irish have two. As the best 3-point shooting team in the country and the most prolific transition offense, it’s easy for Notre Dame to score in bunches and break away from opponents. The Irish show up in marquee games, with wins over USC, UConn and Texas out of conference, in addition to running the table in ACC play. Notre Dame’s two losses came back-to-back in the Bahamas when they were down two frontcourt players, and they’ve been dominant since. They’re winners of 18 in a row, 17 by double digits, and that one nine-point win was without Hannah Hidalgo. This is a deep, veteran team that is ready to get over the hump in the tournament.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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