1 of 2 | Rebel Stakes winner Coal Battle returns in Saturday’s $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. Coady Photography, courtesy of Oaklawn Park
March 28 (UPI) — Saturday’s Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby undoubtedly will send several runners on to the Kentucky Derby, but both seem ripe for upsets.
Those rich races top a weekend agenda that also finds Kentucky Oaks candidates squaring off on the same ovals and January’s Pegasus World Cup and 2022 Florida Derby winner White Abario back in action.
On the global front, Grade 1 racing returns to Japan and the autumn Carnival in Australia has Dubai Honor looking to get back to the winner’s enclosure.
Starting, as we are wont to do, with …
The Road to the Roses
The way things have been going in this year’s Kentucky Derby preps, it’s tempting fate to talk about favorites or longshots. With that caveat, here’s what’s up this weekend.
The morning-line favorite in a field of nine for Saturday’s $1.5 million Grade I Arkansas Derby is making just his second career start — a jump that not too many years ago would have seemed impossible. But things change, and Cornucopian, an Into Mischief colt, has some things going for him that count in today’s world.
For one, his only previous start produced a 5 3/4-length victory and a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. For another, he’s trained by Bob Baffert, who has a startling record of success in raiding Oaklawn’s rich 3-year-old program.
On the flip side, that race was just 6 furlongs, Cornucopian has flown back and forth to Southern California in the interim and he faces more experienced rivals.
That opposition includes the colts who finished first, third and fourth in the local Grade II Rebel — Coal Battle, Sandman and Publisher.
Meanwhile, at Gulfstream Park, Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty returns as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s $1 million Grade I Curlin Florida Derby. The Godolphin homebred, another son of Into Mischief, trained by Bill Mott, wound up 2024 with a 5-length victory in the Grade III Street Sense at Churchill Downs. Saturday’s start will be his second as a 3-year-old.
The aforementioned Bob Baffert spreads his bets by sending Madaket Road to Florida after the Quality Road colt finished second in the Rebel at Oaklawn. In that race, he led by daylight early, but had no answer to Coal Battle’s challenge. He finished third in his final start of 2004, again fading late in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.
The others in the Florida Derby field will have to improve to compete.
The first two finishers in each race will earn enough “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points to ensure they have a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate.
And, speaking of guaranteed entry to the Derby, Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes Nakayama Racecourse will settle the issue of who gets the bid offered the winner of the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.” The likely favorite, Luxor Café, is an American Pharoah colt. He needs only to finish in the top three to win the series.
The Road to the Oaks
Saturday’s $750,000 Grade II Fantasy at Oaklawn Park features Simply Joking, a Practical Joke filly who’s undefeated after winning the Letellier Memorial and Silverbulletday back-to-back at Fair Grounds.
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. holds a strong hand in Saturday’s contentious $250,000 Grade II Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks with three of the seven entries strolling over from his barn. Most attention is to The Queen’s M G, last-out winner of the Grade II Davona Dale.
Classic
White Abarrio returns as the overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s $165,000 Grade III Ghostzapper at Gulfstream Park. The Saffie Joseph Jr. charge was last seen winning the Grade I Pegasus World Cup Invitational by 6 1/4 lengths.
Turf
A solid field of nine is set for Saturday’s $215,000 Grade III Pan American at Gulfstream Park with multiple Grade I winner Far Bridge as the morning-line pick.
Filly & Mare Turf
La Mehana and South African import Beach Bomb are favorites in Saturday’s $165,000 Orchid at Gulfstream Park.
Saturday’s $165,000 Sand Springs at Gulfstream Park looks pretty wide open, so why not go with the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee In Our Time?
Also at Gulfstream, there are many ways to view Saturday’s $165,000, 7 1/2-furlong Sanibel Island for 3-year-old fillies. The 5-2 morning-line favorite, lightly raced Love Cervere, is one of them.
Mile Turf
Tirupati, Alpha Bella and Uncorked look most likely among seven set for Saturday’s $100,000 Grade III Wilshire at Santa Anita.
Major Dude is the major player and 7-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s $165,000 Appleton at Gulfstream Park although watch out for Ice Chocolat coming off a 10-month layoff.
Saturday’s $165,000 Cutler Bay for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park is a wide-open, 7 1/2-furlong race dropped right in the middle of the early Pick 5. Good luck.
Sprint / Dirt Mile
Banishing and Saudi Crown figure in Saturday’s $500,000 Grade III Oaklawn Mile. One-time Kentucky Derby hopeful Gaming now is the favorite in the Sunday’s $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park.
Inveigled and Knightsbridge, 1-2 in their last outing, head the morning line for Saturday’s $165,000 Army Mule at Gulfstream Park.
Pilot Commander, one of two from the Baffert barn, is odds-on favorite in a short field for Saturday’s $100,000 Grade III San Carlos at Santa Anita.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Almostgone Rocket, undefeated after three career starts, is odds-on in a field of six for Saturday’s $250,000 Matron at Oaklawn Park even though the 4-year-old Into Mischief filly hasn’t had a race since the Jersey Girl at Saratoga last June 6. She won her first start by 11 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn on April 5. Haulin Ice and Benedetta are also in this talented field.
Around the world, around the clock
Japan
Sunday’s Grade 1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen has what normally would be seen as the cream of the Japanese sprint crop — last year’s winner, Mad Cool, and the winner of last September’s Grade 1 Sprinters Stakes, Lugal. The problem is that neither has fared particularly well since those highlights. Look for the more consistent Namura Clair.
Australia
Dubai Honor’s last three races have been in Germany, England and Hong Kong — all seconds. He should be favored to go one better in Saturday’s Group 1 H E Tancred Stakes at Rosehill Gardens at 2,400 meters.
Treasurethe Moment, undefeated after five starts, stands out in Saturday’s Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for 3-year-old fillies on the same program.
Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Cup at Flemington, qt 2,000 meters, features Pride of Jenni among 10.
