On media day in Barcelona, Lando Norris opted to shoot straight from the shoulder. The McLaren driver, back to his former effervescent self after a majestic pole position and victory on his home streets of Monte-Carlo, was directly asked whether the 2025 F1 title race was just between himself and serene Australian teammate Oscar Piastri.
“If you think it is just out of me and Oscar… then you are a bit silly,” Norris said. His deficit to leader Piastri is three points with a third of the season raced. Defending champion Max Verstappen is 25 points off the pace in third.
“There are plenty of opportunities,” Norris added. “I expect Ferrari will get better as the season goes on. And Max can still win, come on! We are racing Max every weekend. I don’t know what possibly makes you think that it’s only between the McLaren drivers.”
Yet McLaren’s striking advantage in the constructors’ championship – 172 points and counting – says something different. The fact of the matter is that this should be a two-horse race. Only the triumphant mastery of four-time champion Verstappen, indisputably the best driver on the grid in Suzuka and Imola, means his capricious Red Bull remains in contention.
But could round nine represent a turning point for McLaren’s rivals? The much-talked-about FIA regulation change this weekend, clamping down on flexi front-wings, sees a technical change to the front of this year’s cars by just 5mm.
Small in theory. Seismic in reality?
“This can be a gamechanger for everybody because we don’t know the impact on every single team of the new regulation,” Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur said, after the last race in Monaco. If there’s one team boss who needs a watershed weekend, with the beleaguered Scuderia languishing in fourth and his drivers Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc growing more frustrated by the week, it’s Vasseur.
“We are working on it for ages now,” he added. “We will be focused on this to have a better exploitation of the front wing.”
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, who also needs an improved showing after a dismal fortnight, predicted Ferrari would be the biggest winners.
“Ferrari was probably the most conservative on flexi-wings,” he said. “What it’s going to do to the pecking order is something we need to look at. I’m not sure it will, but [it’s] another angle of curiosity. I don’t know how it’s going to go.”
For what it’s worth, McLaren are unfazed by the rule change. At least to members of the media. “Not at all,” replied Norris, when asked about whether his team were concerned. “There are tweaks here and there, but nothing that will change how we have to do it.”
TOP 10 – DRIVERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Oscar Piastri – 161 Points
2. Lando Norris – 158 points
3. Max Verstappen – 136 points
4. George Russell – 99 points
5. Charles Leclerc – 79 points
6. Lewis Hamilton – 63 points
7. Kimi Antonelli – 48 points
8. Alex Albon – 42 points
9. Esteban Ocon – 20 points
10. Isack Hadjar – 15 Points
The brain behind McLaren’s recent renaissance, ex-Ferrari engineer Andrea Stella, has also insisted the team are well-equipped to deal with the regulation change.
Williams’ Carlos Sainz, one of two Spaniards racing at his home circuit this weekend, was pessimistic about the potential impact. He predicted: “There has been a lot of talk regarding this technical directive, but I don’t think it will affect teams as much as people think.
“I wouldn’t expect more than a one-tenth [of a second] swing up and down the field.”
For Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari, one-tenth won’t be enough. On average, McLaren’s pace advantage in qualifying has been around the 0.3-0.4 second mark, with Red Bull’s Verstappen next in line.
A miraculous overnight silver bullet for the chasing pack seems far-fetched, but in a sport as forensic and intricate as Formula One, the devil will be in the detail as the cars are revealed in the pit lane ahead of practice on Friday.
As it stands, however, Norris and Piastri are the clear favourites this weekend in Barcelona, which is set to host the Spanish Grand Prix for the last time before the race moves to a Madrid street circuit next summer. Formerly a base for pre-season testing, this old-school track 15 miles from the city centre may have one last F1 hurrah in 2026, as a standalone event, before its contract expires.
By then, new engine and chassis regulations may completely alter the frontrunners and backmarkers. It is why, in the drivers’ championship, McLaren must make this year count, whether it be Norris or Piastri basking in the winning glow of their papaya race suits. Unless, of course, this weekend presents a new narrative for the six months ahead.
