Big picture: India will want to show their versatility
Australia are 1-0 up with three games to go, but they suddenly don’t look like the same bowling team anymore.
They will, however, welcome back Glenn Maxwell, who joins the T20I squad after recovering from the fractured wrist that has kept him out of action since mid-September. His return brings a new dimension to Australia’s line-up, particularly with the bat, and particularly against India’s spinners.
It’s hard to say how much learning either of these teams can take from this series with the T20 World Cup in February-March in mind. That tournament will be played in India and Sri Lanka; conditions will be entirely different to those we’ve seen in the early part of this Australian summer, with levels of seam movement and bounce that are seldom to be found anywhere in the world in white-ball cricket.
For all that, though, India want to be an all-weather T20 team; on the evidence of the second T20I on Friday, there are still gaps to plug, with bat as well as ball. There were times at the MCG where they looked, both on paper and in the field, like an XI assembled with Asian conditions in mind.
Over the next three matches, India will want to show they have the versatility to win consistently even in these conditions — no matter how similar or dissimilar they may be to what they get at the World Cup.
Form guide
Australia WWWWL (last five completed T20Is, most recent first) India LWWWW
In the spotlight: Maxwell and Samson
The last time he played for Australia, Glenn Maxwell won them a T20I against South Africa in a manner only he and a handful of others can, from 122 for 6 in a chase of 173. That, though, was his first half-century in 11 T20I innings. That’s what you get from a player of Maxwell’s high-wire game. His T20 numbers against India’s wristspinners show a similar boom-or-bust tendency: a strike rate of 165.30 against Kuldeep Yadav, but also five dismissals in 49 balls, and a strike rate of 151.51 against Varun Chakravarthy while being dismissed five times in 33 balls. Whatever happens in this contest, you can be sure it will entertain. Maxwell will have a role to play with the ball too, possibly even with the new ball against Abhishek Sharma, even if teams are quickly finding out that a number of left-hand batters, Abhishek among them, are getting increasingly adept at taking offspin apart.
Sanju Samson has been trying to adapt to an unfamiliar role at No. 5 or 6 in India’s T20I line-up ever since Shubman Gill’s return squeezed him out of the opening slot. He got the opportunity at the MCG to bat in the more familiar environs of No. 3, but his innings was shortlived, undone by a Nathan Ellis in-ducker that exploited his tendency to hang back and get stuck on the crease even against fullish lengths. If India have continued to back him ahead of Jitesh Sharma, it’s partly because of his strong record against pace. Samson has certainly got the attacking game when he’s in; he will, however, have to bat on pitches where sometimes he’ll have to survive one or two overs before he gets to unleash.
Team news: Will India bring in pace-bowling support?
Who replaces Hazlewood in Australia’s attack? Sean Abbott, who will himself leave the squad after the third T20I, seems the likeliest candidate, although Australia could potentially throw a surprise at India by handing the West Australian tearaway Mahli Beardman (who has, along with Maxwell, joined the squad) an international debut. Maxwell, who has recovered from his wrist fracture, will likely replace either Mitchell Owen or Matthew Short in the middle order.
Australia (probable): 1 Mitchell Marsh (capt), 2 Travis Head, 3 Josh Inglis (wk), 4 Tim David, 5 Glenn Maxwell, 6 Mitchell Owen/Matthew Short, 7 Marcus Stoinis, 8 Xavier Bartlett, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Sean Abbott/Mahli Beardman, 11 Matt Kuhnemann.
India tend not to make too many changes to their T20I XI when series are still alive, but they might be having discussions around the balance of their team after how Friday’s game went. Do they view Shivam Dube as a viable bowling option in these conditions, and if not, could a specialist finisher in Rinku Singh, a batter with more pace-hitting pedigree, serve them better? And are two frontline seamers enough on these early-season Australian pitches, with or without Dube chipping in with a few overs?
Hobart can produce high-scoring games as well as low-scoring games, as its last two T20Is suggest. In February 2024, Australia beat West Indies in a match where both teams passed 200. Then, in November, Australia bowled Pakistan out for 117 and romped to victory in 11.2 overs.
The timing of those matches may have had something to do with how they panned out. Four T20Is played in Hobart in January and February have produced an average first-innings total of 190, while nine completed T20Is in October and November have produced an average first-innings total of 148. Could these lower totals be down to early-summer juice in the pitches? Or do they just reflect the quality of the teams that batted in those games? Or is it all just randomness? And will it have any bearing on Sunday?
A mostly clear day is expected, with evening temperatures cooling from the mid 20s to the low 20s.
Stats and trivia: Samson, Tilak, Abhishek and David near 1000 T20I runs
Sanju Samson needs five runs to become the 12th India batter with 1000 T20I runs. Tilak Varma and Abhishek Sharma, who have played 31 and 25 T20I innings to Samson’s 43, need 38 and 64 runs to get there respectively.
Tim David is 50 runs away from the same landmark
Glenn Maxwell is one wicket away from 50 in T20Is, and Marcus Stoinis is three wickets away ().
Jasprit Bumrah is two wickets away from 100 in T20Is. Arshdeep Singh (101) is the only India bowler to have got to that mark so far.
India have a positive win-loss record against all T20I oppositions. Against Australia so far, they’ve won 20 and lost 12.
India have never played a T20I in Hobart.
Karthik Krishnaswamy is an assistant editor at ESPNcricinfo
