Only four UFC events remain on the calendar in 2025 (and in the ESPN broadcast era), and two of them are major pay-per-view cards. Each numbered event will put two titles on the line, but this week adds a twist of two dominant champions who vacated their titles to take on champs in higher weight classes.
That may ensure a high level of competition, but it also introduces the complexity of predicting performance for fighters moving up a weight class. Ultimately, I think we’ll find better value outside the title fights, though I’ll preview them here to be thorough.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM and subject to change.
Islam Makhachev (-275) vs. Jack Della Madeleine (+220)
On paper, welterweight champ Jack Della Maddalena is the better and more dangerous striker. He’s accurate, he scores knockdowns, and he can put on a high pace for five rounds. So the real question will be: How will his takedown defense hold up? At 69%, that’s above average. And although he was taken down 11 times in his last two fights against Gilbert Burns and former champ Belal Muhammad, he got up quickly and only allowed a minute or less of control time per takedown. That feels pretty relevant here.
To date, one of Makhachev’s best skills is keeping opponents down once he lands the takedown. He averages 1.8 minutes of control time per takedown landed and just over two minutes of control time per round. While he doesn’t always land the first attempt, he gets there eventually and that often decides the round.
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Ultimately, the smaller than expected lean for the former lightweight champ combined with the move up in weight class make for very little value on an otherwise sizable price. It also suggests JDM should be able to hold his own better than the numbers predict, given his size advantage. I think this takes time to develop, and both guys will see moments of success in their preferred positions. Let’s take the safe route of over 2.5 rounds at a price that should be better than taking Makhachev straight. Taking over 3.5 assumes JDM will be able to fight hands and avoid a submission during the inevitable stretches of time on the mat.
(Reed Kuhn/Fightnomics)
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds
Valentina Shevchenko (-135) vs. Weili Zhang (+110)
Unlike in the other title fight, the numbers have a slight lean for the larger fighter in Shevchenko. Not only has she won the featherweight title, she’s competed at bantamweight and performed admirably against the GOAT, Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko will eventually lose some steam with age, but her opponent is only one year younger. Hopefully that day has not yet come.
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The numbers are back and forth. Notably, Shevchenko is the more technical striker, while Zhang is more willing to brawl. That probably works to Shevchenko’s favor, as she made a larger striker in Manon Fiorot pay for coming forward too aggressively. Shevchenko is also very competent on the ground, and Zhang will be one of her smallest opponents to date.
(Reed Kuhn/Fightnomics)
Best bet: Shevchenko to win
Sean Brady (-145) vs. Michael Morales (+120)
The classic grappler versus striker matchup, and you probably know where I’m leaning. Sean Brady has outwrestled elite grapplers and former champions. Morales won most of his fights with his powerful hands, but looked less dominant in decision victories in 2023.
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While Brady is at risk on the feet, he’s proven to be durable enough to buy time and take fights into deep waters. Assuming he weathers the early storm, expect a straight forward gameplan that could see plenty of time with Brady backpacking Morales. Brady spends over one third of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat. The close price reflects the binary nature of outcomes here, but I think it makes the wrestler play affordable.
(Reed Kuhn/Fightnomics)
Best bet: Sean Brady to win
Erin Blanchfield (-250) vs. Tracy Cortez (+200)
Two ranked flyweights, each arguably on their way to a title shot. They have history, as Cortez won their first meeting back in Invicta. But six years later, Blanchfield has put together a slightly more impressive set of wins.
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Both like to use grappling heavily in their offense, but Blanchfield is more likely to initiate, while Cortez’s takedown defense is just average at best. Blanchfield has also submitted multiple opponents in the UFC, something Cortez has yet to do. Cortez has managed success relying on takedowns and control time, but Blanchfield has more recently won fights even without takedowns. There’s enough on the statline and in momentum to back the favorite here.
(Reed Kuhn/Fightnomics)
Best bet: Blanchfield to win
